Most countries are relying on a combination of technological advances and infrastructure changes to meet their goals for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, a new model from Ben-Gurion University of the Negev environmental researchers shows that will likely not be enough and additional factors must be considered.
Their model was presented in Nature Sustainability.
Rising global populations and their increased consumption indicate technological and infrastructural changes will not suffice, according to Prof. Raziel Riemer, Prof. Meidad Kissinger and Dr. Na’ama Teschner.
Despite significant investment in technology and infrastructure, population growth and accompanying rising individual consumption will likely offset reductions leading countries to miss their 2050 targets.
The global population is expected to grow by 20% by 2050.
Israel is a particularly interesting case study because of the steady demographic growth the country experiences. However, the model is applicable to all countries.
The model examined the expected implications of population growth, changes in personal consumption habits in Israel, and the implementation of technological developments to reduce emissions related to areas such as electricity, transportation, water, food, and construction.
The findings indicate that despite the large investments in technology and infrastructure, the accepted steps are expected to contribute to reducing emissions per person by 65%, but due to the continued expected population growth, Israel’s carbon footprint will decrease by only 33% while water and land use will increase.
“Despite significant achievements in technology and infrastructure, the expected population growth and the increase in personal consumption may neutralize the reduction in emissions,” explained Prof. Riemer. “Our model shows that achieving 100% electricity generation from renewable sources is an essential step, but additional categories such as food production must also be addressed immediately.”
In addition, the model reveals that demographic processes will increase Israel’s dependence on food imports from abroad in an era when most food already comes from external sources and despite global food insecurity, which is increasing, among other things, because of the climate crisis.
These results emphasize the need to develop innovative agricultural solutions that will help reduce emissions and strengthen national food security.
