What’s that sinking feeling?
In Iran, the very ground under your feet may drop away.
The issue here isn’t war. The issue is land subsidence, a human-caused phenomenon that’s been ignored and mismanaged In Iran for decades. Over-pumping of groundwater is causing Iranian land to subside; that is, to sink.
Land subsidence causes damage like water pipes bursting, roads collapsing, and sewer and gas lines breaking. Houses and buildings crack as their foundations weaken. Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world. With this land deformation, even a minor quake could cause catastrophic disaster.
The GFZ German Research Center for Geosciences in Potsdam used satellite data to reveal the extent of the subsidence. A tool known as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar, which spots even the most minute difference in ground deformation, revealed that land around Imam Khomeini International Airport (IKIA) was sinking at around 5 centimeters per year. This is considered a “moderate” rate of land subsidence. According to Iran’s National Cartographic Center, other areas are sinking at the rate of 31 cm per year.
Land sinks slowly, almost invisibly. But now the effects of land subsidence are plain to see; especially when a hole in the earth opens up and swallows a whole car under your eyes. At risk are cities, historical sites, and crucial structures like Iran’s airport. In Tehran, Isfahan and Rafsajan, land has dropped by over 12 inches (30 cm) per year. It can’t be ignored anymore.
90% of Iranian groundwater is used for farming. Much is wasted through inefficient management, such as unmonitored drilling of deep wells to make up for reduced rainfall. 14.5 cubic meters of groundwater are pumped every second, an unsustainable rate of use. One way to reduce waste and water theft is to implement water metering.
One might think that innovative farming methods such as Saudi Arabia’s proposed hydroponic greenhouses might penetrate Iranian thought.
As for the largest urban center, 70% of Tehran’s water needs are supplied by five nearby dams. Now, according to current state media reports, the reservoirs are only 13 percent full.
Better management of water resources is needed, such as projects to reduce waste and recycle water; but corruption and plain official indifference impede it.
Discussing water scarcity and air pollution in Tehran, the best that President Masoud Pezeshkian had to offer was a proposal to move Iran’s governmental hubs away.
“We have no choice but to move the country’s political and economic center closer to the sea,” he said.
In other words, no plan to manage water where the majority of people live: just moving government structures on to a better place.
Climate change and air pollution have roles in this sorry story too. Droughts plague Iran. In 2024, precipitation was 60% below average. Ice formed on mountains, which as snowmelt helps fill wells and aquifers, could help, except that it’s contaminated with pollution that rises from urban air.
Human population growth also strains water resources and distribution: the population of Tehran, for example, has exploded from 2 million to over 15 million in the last five decades. With a population of 90+ million, ignoring land subsidence and the reasons it happens could eventually lead to widespread disaster.
Photos via Tehran Times
