The October 7 attack was a shock and surprise to civilians and the Israeli military. But technology used for predicting earthquakes and seismic shocks can be used to detect future attacks, say researchers from Tel Aviv University. They have looked at the data leading up to the attack where Israel was breached, 1200 killed and 250 were kidnapped, and say that unusual activity can be sensed in seismic measurements taken at the time. Of course it’s retroactive data and conclusions but researchers reveal that on the morning of October 7th, approximately half an hour before the deadly terrorist assault, the stations recorded weak but widespread human-induced seismic noise.
The researchers attribute these anomalous seismic amplitudes to the unusual movement of heavy vehicles within the Gaza Strip heading toward organizational points along the Israeli border up to 20 minutes before the ground barrier breach
The researchers explain that forensic seismology is often used to monitor conventional and nuclear explosions. However, this is the first time in history that weak ground motions resulting from preparations for a terrorist attack have been identified by analyzing the characteristics of seismic noise induced by vehicular traffic.
They believe the discovery demonstrates the potential usage of seismic-based sensing technology to provide early warnings of terrorist activity.
Related: Sexual crimes reported by the UN on October 7
The study, led by Asaf Inbal of the Department of Geophysics at Tel Aviv University’s Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences and Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, was published in The Seismic Record, a journal of the Seismological Society of America.
Israel has seen catastrophic earthquakes over the centuries and much of this data was gleaned from church records that reported back to the Vatican over the years. Israel has been saying for the last 30 years that a large earthquake can be expected at any time. Turkey is seismically very active in the last 10 years but recent research suggests that the tectonic plates between Turkey and Dead Sea Rift are not or no longer connected.
Inbal explains the data they found around the attack on October 7: “The Israeli Geological Survey operates a nationwide network of dozens of highly sensitive seismometers that continuously monitor ground motions. This network is primarily designed to detect and locate earthquakes and provide warnings of strong ground shaking caused by large-magnitude seismic events.
“However, three stations in the network—located in Amazia, Ktsiot, and Yatir, between 30 and 50 kilometers from Gaza—recorded unusual seismic noise levels early in the morning of October 7th, 2023. This noise can be attributed with confidence to the vehicular activity in Gaza as Hamas terrorists gathered for the attack. The time frame was between 6:00 and 6:30 AM, before the rocket fire began.
“The likelihood that the recorded signals originated from Gaza is over 99.9%.
“The motions recorded near the seismometers were in the range of tens of nanometers per second, whereas the minimum ground motion detectable by humans is several millimeters per second,” explains Inbal. “The characteristics of the noise originating from Gaza and captured by the Israeli stations are fundamentally different from those recorded at the same stations on previous Saturdays during those hours.
“We analyzed three years of data from the Israeli station trio recorded in the same time frame as the one leading up to the attack. We found no instance of a Saturday morning when correlated amplitudes were recorded at all three stations for over 10 minutes. It’s important to note that these stations are widely spaced, with each station primarily sensitive to seismic noise generated by nearby human activity.
“For instance, the distance between Ktsiot and Amazia is about 80 kilometers, and on previous Saturdays, there was no correlation between the data recorded at these stations. On the morning of the attack, when local activity near the stations was minimal, we found unique widespread seismic amplitudes, which monotonically increased with time approaching the attack.
“No known natural or human source on the Israeli side could have generated seismic signals with a distribution and intensity similar to those attributed to Hamas movements. Although the outdoor music festival near Re’im generated some seismic noise, our analysis shows that this noise does not match the strength or location of the noise sources recorded by the Israeli seismic network on October 7th.”
The analysis indicates the seismic noise detected began at 6:00 AM and intensified as the attack approached. Occasionally, the noise contained short bursts strong enough to pinpoint their source and track their progress. The location and intensity of these sources in Gaza suggest vehicle movements advancing southward and northward within Gaza, from Rafah in the south to the Erez crossing in the north, during the 30 minutes leading up to the attack.
“We have good resolution along Salah al-Din Road, a major thoroughfare crossing Gaza from Rafah in the south to Beit Lahia in the north,” says Inbal. “We can confirm with high certainty that their forces moved along this route at speeds of 25 to 50 km/h. Observations from stations dozens of kilometers from Gaza’s border indicate convoys of heavy vehicles such as bulldozers and trucks carrying operatives.
“Three minutes before the attack began, we detected noise sources reaching the northern end of Gaza near Beit Lahia and the southern end near Khan Yunis. At the same time, we continued receiving signals from central Gaza, near Nuseirat. We know the assault began almost simultaneously along the entire border, so these seismic observations provide further evidence of the extensive deployment of Hamas forces, likely enabling the simultaneous breach of the ground barrier.”
