Children run after each other with kites flying along Egypt’s Nile Delta. Families and friends enjoy the scenery as they enjoy an afternoon picnic. Just a few miles away, farmers work in their fields of green. These diverse crops will feed millions of Egyptians. Throughout the region, cities buzz with people coming and going from factories and offices, playing football with their families, and building the economic engine that will support the nations’ goals for low-carbon climate-resilient development. 

It’s a beautiful picture. A picture of progress, a picture of hope, a picture of peace. Now imagine if this got impacted negatively. The Nile Delta hosts 18 million citizens – almost a quarter of Egypt’s population — as well as countless businesses, economic sectors, farms and more.

This terrifying scenario will come true if climate change isn’t taken seriously. 

Millions at risk

Extraordinary measures

Integrated approaches

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When you think of the Nile, what comes to mind? Egyptian cotton, Baby Moses in a bassinet, waiting among the reeds to be found and brought into the Pharaoh’s palace, a Nile cruise along the riverbanks? An ancient and modern empire?  These things might come to mind if you are sitting on your couch somewhere in the west reading this.

If you are from Ethiopia, Sudan or Egypt your concerns are very different. And they could spell life and death, prosperity or war. And this is a serious time and the world needs to get involved, especially those funding renewable energy projects:

Ethiopia is about to finish the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa and the 7th largest in the world. It’s called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). We have been writing about the dam for years. But now world leaders are paying attention because the dam is about to be completed and be filled.

The water for the Ethiopian dam comes from the headwaters of the Nile where it is called the Blue Nile River, and Egypt might lose half of its Delta or 50% of arable farms as the dam water fills. 

If you are an Egyptian the Mighty Nile is your lifeforce. It is your life and possibly your demise. If 80 percent of your river will be lost, this will spell out catastrophe for Egyptian life as you know it. Who owns mighty rivers? Can a nation suddenly dam one without consideration of who is downstream? These are issues that Israel, Jordan and Syria have faced for millenial, on the Jordan River, a tiny river to compare, but mighty in its own way. 

Losing the Nile is unthinkable to Egyptians. Their pharaohs were the masters of the Nile and they built empires and modern republics on it.

The Pharaohs worshiped crocodiles and they commanded their people to use the Nile to ship giant granite blocks to build the Great Pyramid of Giza nearby. In 1970, Egypt’s post-independence leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser, completed the Aswan High Dam, which tamed the seasonal flow of the Nile and transformed Egyptian agriculture.

Egypt justified its dominance over the river by citing a colonial-era water treaty and a 1959 agreement with Sudan. But Ethiopia does not recognize them, and when its former leader, Mengistu Haile Mariam, proposed building a series of dams on the Nile back in 1978, he met threats from Egypt.

The Egyptians and the Ethiopians all need the water for life

Without the Nile Egypt will not be Egypt. Food prices will sour. Irrigation will end. The millions living in slums will be cut off from basic needs. War will most certainly erupt. 

The Arab Spring, climate change, and now Ethiopia’s interest in creating a dam for hydro-electric power all spell disaster for Egypt and the western east.  To mitigate war and catastrophe, humanitarian and political, talks are being mediated by the US Treasury and the World Bank yet there is no agreement the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Ethiopia is energy ambitious, like every nation

Ethiopia itself emblematic of being one of the world’s poorest countries hopes its 510-foot-tall, 5,840-foot-long structure will finally once and for all hold Ethiopia’s dominant position for the source of the Blue Nile, which is also the source water to 80% of Egypt’s water.

It will have cost $4 billion USD to build it (Reuters) and when the dam is full and in operation the GERD will supply over 6,000 megawatts of electricity  and it will become Africa’s largest hydropower dam.

We can learn from China however on how dam’s devastate local communities, kill entire ecosystems, and wipe out major species (see NYT freshwater giants are dying). Worse will happen if it’s a dam that separates nations, already fragile. Already desperate. 

According to some sources, like the US Media Line, the mediated talks that include Donald Trump “have turned into a disaster.” Though the Media Line does not mention which source. 

America has been a long supporter of Cairo and Egypt with massive amounts of USAID, about $1.5 billion USD a year, going to support the nation. Some funneled into dubious agricultural projects like co-funded with Pepsi Co incentives to increase the output of potatoes per farm –- an expectation obviously to help PepsiCo supply more fried junk food. 

Can and should America be a deal maker in African continent and western east disputes?

America tries to broker water and dam deal

Trump thinks so and has met with water resources ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan at the White House. Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States Treasury and the World Bank. All of them released an agreed statement that there is a “joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”

Which basically says nothing. Or forces anyone to hold there word, but some of the agreed upon terms are below:

• The filling of the GERD will be executed in stages and will be undertaken in an adaptive and cooperative manner that takes into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the potential impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs. (I ask – Who will be doing ecological/hydrological surveys?)
• Filling will take place during the wet season, generally from July to August, and will continue in September subject to certain conditions. (I ask – Who will set these conditions? Who will hold anyone to them as climate change worsens?)
• The initial filling stage of the GERD will provide for the rapid achievement of a level of 595 meters above sea level and the early generation of electricity, while providing appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan in case of severe droughts during this stage. 
• The subsequent stages of filling will be done according to a mechanism to be agreed that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that addresses the filling goals of Ethiopia and provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
• During long term operation, the GERD will operate according to a mechanism that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
• An effective coordination mechanism and provisions for the settlement of disputes will be established.

Losses filled by the World Bank?

The Egyptian newspaper Mada Masr reported the US administration was pressuring Egypt to accept Ethiopia’s proposals in return for compensation from the World Bank for water shortages.

The Blue Nile is a seasonal river and it fills up when the rain starts in Ethiopia around June until the end of November. It travels to the Aswan dam and meets the Nile River, where it dissipates to the Nile Delta. See image below.

Egypt currently bases its share of the river’s waters on a 1959 deal between Sudan and Egypt that gave it 55.5 billion cubic meters water annually, and Sudan 18.5 bcm. Other countries were not given allocations at that time. So basically were not part of the deal. For instance, Ethiopia was not party to the agreement and does not recognize it. If you read one of the past article we wrote and scroll down through to the comments you will see how Egyptians and Ethiopians are disagreeing about this agreement. 

Meanwhile, concerned experts in Egypt expect a minimum amount of water to be allocated to Egypt. The average flow before the dam was about 50 billion cubic meters (source) and Egyptian sources expect the continuation of 40 billion cubic meters annually. 

No one has agreed yet on how such promises will be kept. Deals made between unstable countries to start with? Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia? 

Egypt started building the dam in 2011, at an opportune time – a moment to sneak in dam planning – when Egypt was dealing with its own major problems, the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak, and the Arab Spring. 

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD or TaIHiGe; Amharic: ታላቁ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዳሴ ግድብ), formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes referred to as Hidase Dam is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia that has been under construction since 2011. It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km (9 miles) east of the border with Sudan.

At 6.45 gigawatts, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed, as well as the seventh largest in the world. As of October 2019, the work stood at approximately 70% completion. Once completed, the reservoir could take anywhere between 5 and 15 years to fill with water, depending on hydrologic conditions during the filling period and agreements reached between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

Currently 75% of Ethiopians do not have electricity, and the government needs the dam to help the people prosper. Consider countries like Canada that create hydro-electric power as a way of life. Canada is the world’s second producer of hydro-electric power after China. I am a Canadian. We don’t refer to electricity as electricity, we call it hydro.

Ethiopia wants power and prosperity too. And Ethiopia has warned that millions are ready to go to war over it. 

Egypt could lose 50% of its agriculture land

How can water flow be gauged. When is drought, a drought? When should the dam be filled and then stored? Over what time? How does this work with Sudanese dams? No one has the answers yet. And I fear that in 30 years from now we will see what kind of big mistakes we made for not helping Ethiopia go solar. 

The Geological Society of America reported that Egypt would lose 25 percent of its yearly water if the dam’s reservoir was filled within 7 years.  Egyptians don’t believe that the fill time can be drawn out this long. 

Mahmoud Farouk, program coordinator for civil society partnerships at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington said in this report on the Media Line: Water shortages would pose “a great danger to the Egyptian Delta.. 17% of Egypt’s agricultural land could be destroyed if Ethiopia fills the reservoir in six years, and that figure rises to 51% if they fill it within three years.”

“My main fear is that Ethiopia might continue to ignore these concerns. Water is a matter of life or death to Egyptians – putting Egypt in the corner isn’t the right policy at all,” said Farouk.

More on the Nile and Egypt:

American Elections Are Bad for the Nile Delta

In The Face of Nilelessness, Egyptians Protest Water Shortages

Nile Water Kills 17,000 Children Each Year

Post Revolution Egypt Wants Windfarms

Top image via CNN.

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When all else fails, run to wealthy Saudi Arabia. That seems to be the prevailing thought among Egyptian officials at a loss to resolve the ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over Nile water rights. 

At one point it seemed that the two countries might be able to resolve their differences over the Renaissance Dam construction project in Ethiopia, which threatens Egypt’s already precarious water supply.

In a bizarre twist, Egypt at one point proposed to help with the project’s construction.

But talks between them and Sudan broke down and Ethiopia continues to adopt a fairly noncooperative stance over water rights that were established by colonial powers in 1929.

Politically crippled back home and in no position to exert any kind of power, Egypt has conveyed plans to play its only trump card to ensure its population of nearly 81 million has some semblance of water security: getting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries on board.

Related: Saudi Star Among Firms Behind Thousands of Forced Relocations in Ethiopia

“A detailed report is currently being prepared to examine and explain Egyptian concerns relating to the building of the dam, in the absence of a clear agreement with Ethiopia about it, an Egyptian official told Al Monitor. “The final draft of the report, which explains the concerns over the repercussions the construction of the dam will have on Egypt and Sudan, will be sent to the International Panel of Experts.”

The same official told the paper that Egypt has received reassurances from both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (but not Qatar, notably) that they are on board to help with any issues related to national security.

Mahmoud Abu Zeid, who heads up the Arab Water Council, told the paper that Gulf countries could definitely persuade Ethiopia to reconsider its position with Egypt as long as the two countries reached a consensus, while an Egyptian diplomat who asked to remain anonymous was more direct.

“Any change in the amount or terms of monies given to the Addis Ababa government will greatly contribute in compelling Ethiopia into reassessing its stance towards Egypt, as well as committing to a serious and constructive dialogue in order to resolve the continuing crisis that exists between the two countries concerning the Renaissance Dam, the official told Al Monitor.

Since Saudi Arabia invests more money in Ethiopia than any other country – up to $3 billion in 2011, it probably doesn’t make much sense to test their loyalty.

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This project, which was planned for the Blue Nile by Ethiopia, is just a part the water problems of population dense Egypt; which also loses a significant part of Nile River water from other sources: evaporation, leaky water pipe infrastructure, and from vegetation growing on the banks of the Nile and on river islands.

Talks between water resource ministers of three of the countries that share the Nile’s water resources, Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, ended inconclusively this week in Khartoum, with the participants agreeing to meet meet again next month.

The ‘successful’ Egypt-Ethiopia talks failed to end differences over Nile water. A number of unresolved issues still remain to be solved. They revolve around Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project on Ethipia’s upstream portion of the Nile, called the Blue Nile. Many water experts say this project could “damn Egypt’s development future”. Bur Ethiopia feels that this water is their energy right.

Ethiopia is an energy-poor country that is also plagued by drought and famine. Constructing the massive dam will provide it with both increased water supplies and with hydro-electric power. According to Middle East Online, Ethiopia began diverting the Blue Nile in May to build the 6,000 MW dam, which will be the largest dam built in Africa when completed in 2017.

Although Ethiopian water experts claim that Egypt’s water loss from the project will be “minimal”, Egypt claims that it has ‘historic rights’ to the use of Nile water. These rights stem from two treaties  made in 1929 and 1959 that allow it 87 percent of the Nile’s flow and gives it veto power over upstream water projects.

Egypt itself constructed a large dam on the Nile at Aswan (see above photo), which was completed in 1970 during the presidency of Gamal Abdel Nasser. 

This ten-year project caused much controversy and resulted in many historic archeological sites having to be relocated due to subsequent flooding by what is now known as Lake Nasser.

A dam on the Blue Nile by Ethiopia would obviously have an affect on both neighboring Sudan and Egypt.

Sudan, which like Egypt has still not signed Nile water use treaties with Ethiopia, has said that it will not be so much affected by the Renaissance Dam project. Sudan, Egypt’s long time ally, has apparently switched sides in favor of Ethiopia in regards to this project.

The unresolved issues dealing with the project will be further discussed when the water ministers meet again on January 4. After being weakened following the political turmoil of the Arab Spring uprisings, Egypt appears to be less able to exert its influence over Ethiopia on this important issue.

More articles on issues surrounding the River Nile:

The Dam that May Damn Egypt’s Future

Egypt Losing its Mighty Nile Drop by Drop

Defiant Ethiopia to Proceed with Massive Dam on the Nile River

Nile River dam illustration photo by Seeker

Photo of Nile River at Aswan by World Travelist

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The rhetoric between the two countries reached a feverish pitch last week, prompting local media to hint at the possibility that Egypt would go to war to secure its share of the Nile River, while Ethiopia allegedly said it would be prepared to defend the project at all costs.

However, a spokesperson for Egypt’s armed forces assured Reuters that it’s far too soon to talk about war. And that makes sense.

Ethiopia still hasn’t secured sufficient funding to get the project off the ground, and if it does get funding from the World Bank or similar development organizations, it will likely come with peaceable conditions.

Still, the issue is testy enough that Egypt’s foreign minister Hohamed Kamel Amr is planning a visit to Ethiopia and Sudan in order to reach an agreement that would bode well for Egypt’s population of 80+ million.

One major concern is that the Grand Renaissance Dam will deplete the Nile River’s flow to below the 75 billion cubic meters over a five year period, which is necessary to sustain the water levels that both Egypt and Sudan are accustomed to.

Another is that Ethiopia’s failure to conduct legitimate environmental impact assessments and then follow through with sound development practices could lead to the contamination of the Blue Nile.

Egypt is expected to enter into tripartite discussions with Ethiopia and Sudan in order to reach an agreement that works for all three nations.

:: Egypt Independent

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But don’t talk no trash about his smelly fish.  “It’s an Egyptian tradition that’s been with us for 7,000 years,” he said. “We’re used to it.”

Waiting for his order in a downtown fish shop, Maher Dahab said, “Feseekh is Egyptian, and the ancients taught us how to make it. They built the pyramids, and they made feseekh.”

The persistent popularity of both the odorous entree and the holiday point to Egypt’s millenium-long history, which, in turn, underpins its powerful sense of national identity, unique in the Arab world. That’s a unifying factor in unstable times; this holiday is celebrated by all religions, all classes, and it crosses party lines.

Conservative television preachers have tagged Sham el-Nessim as pagan holiday, but Egypt’s most prominent Islamist parties haven’t voiced opposition.

“It’s an Egyptian tradition that we’ve all become accustomed to,” said Gehad el-Haddad, a senior official with the Muslim Brotherhood, the dominant party in Parliament.

Muhammad Emara, a member of the executive council of the ultraconservative Nour Party, said, “We don’t get involved in Egyptian traditions.”

Government warnings about the dangers of eating uncooked, petrified fish have done nothing to quell demand.

According to Egyptian Health Ministry statistics, bad feseekh poisoned 49 people and killed 9 more in 2007;  sickened 26 and knocked off another 4 in 2008; and in each of the next two years, poisoned over a dozen and killed two.  The fish is a bona fide health risk that can cause complete paralysis or death.

Abdel-Nabi Shahin, perhaps Cairo’s most famous feseekh seller, shrugged when asked about the warnings.

“There are cheaters who give us a bad image,” he said, “Some have dirty fingernails or don’t wash their hands before they work with the fish.”

The job, he said, requires “cleanliness and vigilance.”

Shahin is the third-generation owner of the family business, which now has two stores that draw customers from far away seeking fish they can trust.

The process has changed little over the years, Shahin said. He starts with fresh mullet caught in the Mediterranean, which is washed but left intact, guts and all.

It is packed in salt in wood barrels and left to sit for 45 days. After that, it is good to eat for six months, Shahin said.

A kilogram of Shahin’s feseekh (about 2.2 pounds) goes for about $13, nearly twice what it cost last year because of a fish shortage, according to The New York Times.

Image of dead fish from Maxim Tupikov /Shutterstock

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Egypt is not a country that is fond of reporting oil spills – whether they occur on the Red Sea, in the Suez Canal or the Nile. But it has managed to start clean up a worrying diesel spill into the Nile River, a spill which has leaked onto the shores of Lake Nasser, China.org is reporting. The area is near the High Dam in Aswan region, and the Nile waters the breadbasket of Egypt.

Despite much of the government being crippled by ongoing conflicts and protests, the Minister of State for Environmental Affairs, Khaled Fahmy, reportedly ordered that the area be surveyed and the oil contained. Currently there are two marine vessels working to clean up the lake. That which didn’t evaporate is being sponged up, the groups and marine units working on the spill reported to local media.

Legal action will be taken against the cruise ship, the Environment Ministry promised.

Just this past October oil spills were being detected in the Nile by cruise ships and local facilities dumping waste there. It was found contaminating the Nile in Aswan region, which then flowed onto  Luxor, Qena, Sohag and Assuit governorates.

A special unit has been formed to fight Nile River pollution and tourist ships are starting to be followed and inspected.

Update August, 2020: an oil tanker on the shore of Yemen can burst at any moment if international help does not step in.

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“We have been working in the industry of ships and the sea since 1986,” Nile Taxi CEO Magdi Kirollos told Daily News Egypt. “We also own boat franchises so we know the business inside out.”

Kirollos and partner Amr Abou El Seoud have been toying with the idea of a water taxi that crosses the Nile River for about six years, but didn’t seriously start pursuing a business until three years ago.

Bad timing for them, given the political turmoil of those years, but after persevering, they have finally received the necessary license to do what the ancients always did: transport people from one side of the river to the other by boat.

At present the company uses mostly speed boats that travel between Maadi and Shubra, the longest journey, which costs 35EGY ($5). That is roughly $1 less than it costs to take a regular taxi, which also comes with road rage, carbon emissions, noise pollution, and could hours if there happens to be an accident or blocked car.

Lorna Gow, a bellydancer who lives in the capital, recently used the service for the first time and tweeted her enthusiasm.

“Nile taxi- today for 1st time,” she tweeted. “I travelled across Cairo by speed boat! What a fabulous way to go!”

On its way to Shubra, the taxi makes 18 stops at crucial points along the way, including Giza, the upscale neighborhood favored by expatriates, Zamalek, and Nile City. And certain partnering hotels have arranged customized services for their guests.

In time, Nile Taxi plans to operate a 15 passenger boat, and everyone who travels this way is covered under the company’s insurance program.

“It saves time and effort and reduces stress, Kirollos told the paper. “You also get to see another very different Egypt, a beautiful one. It is a completely different environment and you see another face of the country.”

Albeit a brilliant solution to the city’s horrendous traffic, which the World Bank estimated drains four percent of the country’s GDP in lost production and accidents each year, we can’t help but see a future full of racing yellow boats vying for the money of commuters.

Images of Nile Taxi via Shaimaaka Flickr

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But when construction on the Aswan Dam began in 1902, the ecosystem was forever altered. The natural flooding cycle was disrupted, silt began to accumulate in places and crucial nutrients were no longer deposited. Margaux Leycuras, Marion Ottmann and Anne-Hina Mallette hope to restore it with Hydropolis – a series of floating modular structures that reorganize the local agricultural system.

Students from the Architecture school of Nantes, the team who designed Hydropolis recently won a prize in a competition organized by the Foundation Jacques Rougerie. Their idea was to develop a well-integrated modular system that would solve the dual problem of hunger and environmental destruction.

The design proposes in part to restore something of the Nile River’s natural flooding system by opening the dam gates during the wettest months of the year ( July to September.) This would allow the fields to receive their nutrients, as well as a certain level of hydro saturation, so that rice crops can grow once again.

The floating cities would be organized on different sections of Lake Nasser, creating “eco-modules” on a 200 meter deep reservoir. While the floodgates are open, these reservoirs will likewise receive water to see the communities through the dry months.

Ideally suited for rice cultivation, this system would be connected by a series of canals and other links that enhance cohesiveness among the various communities.

A sea wall envelope would shelter the city and the Nile River can return to its initial work.

While Hydropolis seems rather far-fetched for Egypt given its current economic and political environment, not to mention the dispute between Egypt and its neighbors to the south over water rights, it is a thoughtful idea and we’ll be keeping a close eye on its development.

:: Arch Daily

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Land grabs are old news, but National Geographic has taken a closer look at Saudi’s African interests in particular and the resulting story is startling. The world’s favorite nature magazine visited two massive dairy farms, including the world’s largest, that were built in one of the driest and hottest parts of earth – roughly 100 miles southeast of Riyadh. Here, Friesian cows survive amid temperatures of up to 110 degrees fahrenheit.

The cows raised at the Al Safi and Almarai farms live better than some humans in air-conditioned sheds and water misters that keep them cool. But feeding them with grain grown nearby has depleted 4/5th of the Kingdom’s ancient aquifer in the last 30 years. For milk. The farms are facing closure as a result of water shortages, but instead of giving up altogether, the Saudis are buying up land and water elsewhere – including the already vulnerable Nile.

Water is free to farmers in Saudi Arabia so they have no incentives to use less or to conserve at all.

The Nile was apportioned in 1929 by colonial powers, an issue that has created great tension among Nile River Basin countries in the last few years. Egypt relies almost entirely on this river for its population’s survival, but upstream countries feel that they have been shortchanged by that country’s monopoly.

Ethiopia has been particularly vociferous, though the main instigator of a slew of new damns and hydroelectricity projects, former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, died in August, 2012. But not before allowing Saudi Star, owned by Sheikh Mohammed Ali Al Amoudi, to purchase large tracts of land near the headwaters of the Nile in Gambela.

Member of the local Anuak Tribe talked to National Geographic about the firm’s usurpation of land and water. At the time of writing, the company was digging a canal to drain nearby wetlands and their 24,711 acre relies on a reservoir built in the 1980s by Soviet engineers.

Tribesmen told the magazine that they intended to farm their ancestral land anyway. When they moved in to do so, gunmen shot and killed several Saudi Star workers, unleashing a vicious government crackdown in the nearby villages.

Men were killed, women were raped. Many people fled to neighboring Southern Sudan.

The Saudi government offers shiny incentives for firms to seek out arable land outside of the Kingdom. According to National Geographic, the King Abdullah Initiative for Saudi Agricultural Investment Abroad has catalyzed projects as far afield as Senegal River in West Africa and Indonesian New Guinea.

And the reason? The Saudis are concerned to secure a steady food supply in the decades to come now that their own resources are depleted as a result of chronic mismanagement. Other Gulf countries such as Abu Dhabi are pursuing a similar track.

Meanwhile, several reports show that Gulf Arabs are among the fattest people on earth, which begs the question: will Saudi, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar purge other resources the way they destroyed their own in order to satisfy their overgrown waistlines?

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