The reasons for that are both complicated and simple: aside from an obvious collective denial about the difficulties that are hurling down the path as a result of climate change, rich nations are especially unwilling to acknowledge their role in the accumulation of greenhouse gases that has put us in so much trouble because they don’t want to pay for it.

Although some analysts considered COP17 in Durban to be less of a disappointment because nations agreed to write a successor to the Kyoto Protocol by 2015, this year’s conference was a waste of time, effort and money. (Because frankly, at this stage, anything short of revolutionary will not keep the globe safe from harm.)

This would be less frustrating, perhaps, if everybody who attended the Doha meetings were completely clueless about climate change, if no reports in the last two weeks had revealed in no uncertain terms how thoroughly storms and bugs and heat and rising seas are going to destroy life as we know it.

Everybody knows, but only a handful of countries, namely Lebanon, the Dominican Republic, Belarus and Ukraine are prepared to cut their own emissions.

And only Germany, Britain, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark and the EU Commission in Doha agreed to contribute to the $20 billion global climate change fund agreed to at COP15.

“The question of climate management is extremely serious,” said Laurent Fabius, France’s foreign minister, according to Reuters.

“It appears we have already exceeded the 2-degree limit. If that is the case, there are absolutely catastrophic consequences. We must react.”

That’s the consensus, but rich countries like the United States, Canada and Japan refused to sign an interim agreement to cut emissions and the very mention of a Loss and Damage fund owed to poor, vulnerable nations seems to give everybody hives.

Both the EU and US cite the global economic crisis as justification for their reluctance to make commitments.

But here’s the great fallacy. Delaying payments now will not forestall the inevitable, which is destruction on a scale never before seen on earth. Hurricanes and typhoons are going to keep ripping through coastal towns and we’ll be forced to clean up the mess, year after year.

Hurricane Sandy alone is expected to cost $50 billion USD, according to early estimates, which is half of what all the developed nations committed to raise by 2020. So we’re going to pay some time down the line, whether we like it or not.

Our leaders have failed us. Miserably. Again. Is it time for the people to take matters into their own hands?

Image of Hurricane Sandy damage by Leonard Zhukovsky, Shutterstock

The post Failed COP18 Climate Talks Boil Down to Money (Op-Ed) appeared first on Green Prophet.

Only, this 1,700 gigaton bomb has not been accounted for in prediction models. That a huge concentration of latent ice-age old carbon poses potential danger not just to humanity and to other species but to the roads, pipelines and buildings lying above it has been neglected, said UN Under-Secretary General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner. A suggested three-pronged course of action will hopefully change that.

A Thawing Bomb

“Permafrost is one of the keys to the planet’s future because it contains large stores of frozen organic matter that, if thawed and released into the atmosphere, would amplify current global warming and propel us to a warmer world,” said Steiner.

“Its potential impact on the climate, ecosystems and infrastructure has been neglected for too long,” he added.

The UNEP report, Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost was designed to spur dialogue among climate-treaty negotiators, policy makers and the general public as they prepare to create a successor to the Kyoto Protocol that expires this year. It also hacks a path to the way forward, instead of dropping concerned parties in an alarmist cloud.

Three proactive steps 

First, the report’s authors recommend that the IPCC – the official voice of climate change – commission a special report that reveals the potential impact that carbon released from 30-85% of the permafrost might have on the environment, which would in turn support emergent (and enormously important) policy decisions.

Then, northern countries, especially Russia, Canada, China and the United States, should assume responsibility for permafrost monitoring stations that share data across a network. “The International Permafrost Association should continue to coordinate development and the national networks should remain part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost,” UNEP urges.

And finally, it behooves these nations to prepare for the worst. Structural damages, habitat destruction, migration, longer growing seasons, and increased risk of fire are just a few potential consequences.

Infrastructure collapse

But the biggest fear for those of us shy of oil spills, we already have an idea of what will happen if pipelines laid over this territory are destabilized as a result of the shifting ground.

“Infrastructure failure can have dramatic environmental consequences, as seen in the 1994 breakdown of the pipeline to the Vozei oilfield in Northern Russia, which resulted in a spill of 160,000 tonnes of oil, the world’s largest terrestrial oil spill,” UNEP reports.

These events are always financially crippling, politically disastrous, and environmentally criminal, which is powerful ammunition for the likes of Bill McKibben and the 350.org (global) crowd, as well as other activists, moviemakers and indigenous people who are determined to fell the Keystone XL Pipeline project.

For a much more detailed and scientific analysis of the permafrost bomb, we beg you to visit the UNEP website.

Image of old Russian bomb in snow, Shutterstock

The post A 1,700 Gigaton Carbon Bomb is Thawing in the Permafrost appeared first on Green Prophet.

Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah, who is the president of the COP18 got a thorough telling off for courting big oil executives in the lead up to the climate talks

The annual UN climate talks are coming the Middle East for the first time ever. As such, climate change and environmental issues are hitting the local headlines much more than usual and a tangible sense of excitement and anticipation is building in the region. To guide you through this tangled two-week conference and help you cut through the spin, we will be providing weekly COP18 updates. We’ve already published an article exploring the major issue which will be discussed at the talks – the Kyoto Protocol – and Does Vandousselaere has published a great guide to Egypt’s COP18 position. More after the jump!

COP18 President (Still) Courting Oil Executives
Days before the UN Climate Conference is due start (26 November to December 7, 2012), Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah who is its president, spoke at an ‘Oil and Money’ event in London and presented the petroleum executive of the year award – an award he himself had received in 2007. Avaaz, the campaigning organisation, was understandably not very pleased. They wrote:

“As the official conference president, Attiyah should be working tirelessly behind the scenes to shore up a successful outcome of the negotiations, not presenting awards to the top brass of the oil industry. One of the key jobs of a conference president is to act as a neutral broker, someone who can help countries work together towards a climate saving deal. Attiyah’s industry experience makes him uniquely positioned to find common ground at the upcoming talks, but his decision to speak at this week’s Oil & Money conference puts his reputation – and the climate talks – at risk. He needs to change course before it’s too late.”

Arab Women’s Role in Energy and Climate Change Highlighted
Last week, an event exploring the topic “Arab women leading the way in energy and climate change” was jointly hosted by the Directorate of Energy and Climate Change at the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the ‘Mary Robinson Foundation – Climate Justice’ and Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy company. Mary Robinson said: “Women’s contributions – political, economic, social and environmental – are central to tackling the global challenges we face today. Women can play an important role in bringing about positive societal transformations.”

“COP 18 provides an important opportunity for the region to show leadership on climate change. There is renewed hope that next month in Qatar, countries can agree to act together to take positive action on climate change and embrace a new model of development, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions, builds resilience to climate change and delivers sustainable development for all,” Robinson added.

Qatari Students Get Climate Change Training
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) has announced it will train a team of eight top Qatari students to cover the upcoming climate change talks in Doha. IISD’s Earth Negotiations Bulletin is the world’s leading publication on international environment and sustainable development negotiations. According to a press release, the training will begin just prior to COP18 and give the students an opportunity to shadow IISD’s report writers at a live conference and gain hands-on writing experience.

The students will then receive a certificate on completion of the assignment, which will involve publishing a daily English language report during the conference. “Working with young people to further the goals for sustainable development is one of the most important investments we can make,” said IISD chair Dan Gagnier. “I am confident that we not only provide an opportunity for young people to make a contribution to sustainable development but that in this exchange we can learn from their willingness to question our terms of reference.”

For more on the COP18 see:
Egypt’s Position for COP18 Explained
Will The Kyoto Protocol Survive Qatar 2012?
Message to Qatar From Arab Youth – ‘Take the Lead on Climate Change!’
Lifesaving Sahara Forest Project to Start with COP18 in Qatar
Can Qatar Balance Its Interests and Host a Successful Climate Summit?

Image of Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah via Omar Torres / AFP.

The post COP18 Updates – Women, Students & A President Courting Oil appeared first on Green Prophet.

The UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP 18) conference will take place between November 26 and December 7th 2012 in Doha, Qatar. The Kyoto agreement is facing even more challenges than it did during the 2011 climate conference in Durban. But there is some hope that the Qatar climate conference will spark off the second phase of the Kyoto protocol agreement even as Kyoto’s 2012 deadline approaches.

A Brief History of the Kyoto Agreement

The Kyoto protocol agreement was first signed on December 11, 1997.  One hundred and ninety one countries went on to ratify the agreement and committed themselves to various greenhouse gas emission targets. The targets were to be measured in comparison to a baseline year, usually 1990, and varied according to circumstances of individual countries including industrial development and wealth. So-called Annex I countries committed to a target which would be measured at the end of 2012 in preparation for the next phase of the agreement. As this deadline approaches, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has made a pre-release version of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2012 – Highlights available. This annual publication contains estimates of CO2 emissions by country, region and sector from 1971 to 2010.

Now for the Complicated Part

Anthropogenic greenhouse warming is controversial, but at least this debate breaks down to a simple yes or no answer. The question of whether a nation is making progress towards its Kyoto protocol greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target is somewhat more complicated. Some countries such as the United Kingdom were committed to GHG reductions from a baseline year (typically 1990.) Others committed to a reduction in the increase of greenhouse gasses from a baseline year. Other countries (e.g. China) were not required to commit to a greenhouse gas emission target at all over this first measurement period.

To complicate matters further, the Clinton administration signed the agreement after the US senate had unanimously voted for the Byrd-Hagel resolution which rendered this signature meaningless.  This resolution said that the Senate would not support any climate ratification that excluded the developing world or that could harm the US economy.  President George W. Bush clarified this position with a terse withdrawal from the Kyoto protocol in the spring of 2001.

CO2 Emissions per capita show a drop in the high baseline of North America. Per capita carbon dioxide emission in the Middle East and Asia/Oceania has surpassed the global average as well as the European average.

Others Threaten to Drop out of the Game

Canada, Russia and Japan announced their intention to withdraw from the Kyoto agreement. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev explained that Russia had received no benefit from the Kyoto protocol.  And Japan, the birthplace of the Kyoto agreement, has had to adjust its priorities as 48 of its 50 nuclear reactors were shut down after the March 2011 tsunami and Fukushima meltdown. Even New Zealand, a progressive country with enormous potential for geothermal and hydro-power, is considering dropping the Kyoto agreement as the carbon credits it had hoped to benefit from have been devalued by the Kyoto exodus.

The Silver Lining Behind Kyoto’s Cloudy History

While the best hopes of the Kyoto agreement seem to be fading, there is a silver lining behind the cloud that hangs over this historic agreement. The European Union met its reduction target and went on to reduce its carbon emissions by an additional 8.8%.  After carbon trading adjustments by Spain, Luxemburg, Italy and seven other EU nations, only Italy is expected to fall short of its target. Germany, Denmark, Sweden and the UK performed especially well proving that GHG reduction is possible and that it is compatible with the strongest economies in Europe. It must have come as a terrible embarrassment that after years of political wrangling, excuses and gnashing of teeth over the Kyoto agreement that the US came nearer to its unratified Kyoto target than some signatories.

The Qatar Climate Conference: The End or a Turning Point?

The Qatar conference comes at a critical time in the Kyoto agreement. EU members have proven that GHG reduction and prosperity can go together. The 700% rise in oil prices since 1997 means GHG is no longer the only compelling reason for weaning ourselves from fossil fuels. Technology and climate science have come a long way since 1997. China developed  rapidly since 1997 and its GHG emissions rose as much as 10% annually during parts of the last decade.

China now leads the world in carbon emissions so its carbon footprint can no longer be written off as inconsequential. The United States has seen that without its participation and leadership, Kyoto did not follow the same highly successful trajectory as the Montreal protocol on CFC emissions did.

The Qatar climate conference could very well mark the end of the Kyoto protocol.  It could be the beginning of Kyoto 2.0. But it could also be the beginning of something so innovative and progressive that it deserves a new name. How many nations will fully participate in the Doha Qatar Protocol?

Graphs by Brian Nitz for Green Prophet using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) pre-release version of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 2012 – Highlights

The post Will the Kyoto Protocol Survive Qatar 2012? appeared first on Green Prophet.

On the face of things, the COP 17 conference in Durban was more successful than Copenhagen or Cancun, but the truth is, nothing has changed. Even though the Kyoto Protocol was extended with a plan to roll out a new protocol by 2015 and put it into effect by 2020, The Economist points out that these protocols will remain useless until such time that meaningful disincentives are put in place to keep big polluters from breaking their carbon-mitigation promises. 

One size fits all

Meanwhile, America’s biggest grievance – that no distinction should be made between developed and developing countries – was put to rest: climate change will be considered a one-size-fits-all problem when the new protocol is developed. This means that developing and developed countries will be expected to take equal responsibility for keeping carbon emissions down — or not.

The Economist reports that although this new distinction has ended a bitter battle, “It has also rendered [the Kyoto Protocol] ineffective, given that the so-called developing countries given a free pass under Kyoto, including South Korea and Saudi Arabia as well as China and India, are now responsible for 58% of global emissions.”

A penniless climate fund

The long-awaited design of a Green Climate Fund that is supposed to dole out $100 billion to poorer countries by 2020 so that they will be able to protect themselves against climate change and reduce their emissions is another quasi COP 17 success story. Although its design signifies some kind of move forward, it lacks substance since no one has been able to agree where the money will be sourced to float this fund.

These half-hearted measures simply won’t do enough to prevent temperatures from rising beyond the 2°C deemed tolerable by climate science experts. More likely, we are looking at a 4°C rise by 2060 according to most estimates.

What a 4 degree Celsius temperature rise looks like

A 2009 study prepared for the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change by scientists at the Met Office outlined some of the ramifications of a 4 degree rise in average global temperature. Here are just a few of them, taken from The Guardian.

• The water supply of half the world’s population will be threatened
• Up to half of all animal and plant species will be wiped out
• Low coasts will be swamped
• Both South and West Africa and the Arctic can expect a 10°C rise in temperature

One thing is for certain, our failure to create radical changes will ensure that most people alive to today will experience the most catastrophic effects of a much hotter world.

:: The Economist

image via Morguefile

The post # COP17FAIL: Climate Change is a One-Size-Fits-All Problem appeared first on Green Prophet.

It’s that time of year again, when delegations suit up for the circus that has come to typify the United Nations Climate Change Conferences. Rich, polluting countries unwilling to sacrifice their high-flying lifestyles are threatening to abandon the Kyoto Protocol, which in part jeopardizes the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) that helps MENA countries advance renewable energy projects such as Morocco’s 500 MW solar plant expected to break ground next year.

At present there are 388.92 parts per million of CO2 in our atmosphere. The safe level is 350 ppm. The object of these expensive, carbon intensive meetings is to reach some kind of international agreement that requires everyone to reduce their carbon emissions, but they almost always fail because of self interest. For a perfect example of this, look at Saudi Arabia: despite showing the highest GDP growth in 8 years, one of the world’s most extravagant nations is protecting itself against new policies that might put their oil-wealth at risk.

OPEC’s Cheerleader 

According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia is arguing on behalf of all Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which Mohammed al-Sabban said in a speech at the Energy Dialogue conference in Riyadh is unfairly targeted by climate change mitigation policies.

Senior economic adviser to the Minister of Petroleum, al-Sabban said:

Saudi Arabia hasn’t asked for compensation for the loss of income from oil sales as consumers look to obtain energy from cleaner fuels such as natural gas or renewable energy… Rather the kingdom wants technological assistance from developed countries and more direct investment to diversify its economy.

Of the 12 OPEC nations, which Bloomberg notes collectively sell 40% of the world’s crude oil, 4 are among the top 50 richest nations in the world. Those include Qatar, the UAE, Kuwait, and of course Saudi Arabia. Other OPEC countries in the region that are less well-off include Iran, Iraq, Algeria and Libya.

Kyoto II?

These countries are also among the most vulnerable to climate change, since each one of them is already struggling with scarce water resources and are subject to drought and record high temperatures. Saudi’s call for investment in diversification is a smart move, however, and kudos to the kingdom for taking a stand against waffling polluters.

Saudi Arabia thinks that a second commitment period for the Kyoto Protocol is a must, and without having unconditional emission reduction numbers from developed countries for the period beyond 2012, it will be impossible to have any agreement in Durban.

Saudi’s Solar Society

Despite being oil producers, Saudi Arabia and the UAE recognize that peak oil is near (and the world will be affected as soon as next year), and are leading the MENA region’s transition to a solar society. Just yesterday we covered a “game-changing” postage stamp-sized solar cell technology being developed in Canada, which received a $10 million capital infusion from Saudi.

It remains to be seen if Canada, China, the United States, and India are going to catch on to the seriousness of climate change during the next two weeks in Durban, but stay tuned for updates.

:: Bloomberg

image via Wallyir

The post Saudi Acts as Oil Cheerleader at COP 17 Circus appeared first on Green Prophet.

An update on the latest climate negotiations in Bonn as well as Middle Eastern countries which made the headlines during the talks

Believe it or not, the latest climate negotiations at Bonn – which discussed the future of the Kyoto Protocol which ends in 2012 as well financing adaptation – have come and gone without making much of a stir. The lack of media attention is surprising, even if we take into consideration the total failure of Copenhagen and a growing realisation that climate summits are not where we are going to find solutions for climate change.

What isn’t so surprising is apparent failure of the talks to make any real progress towards setting legally binding targets to cut emissions or finance the developing countries so that they can move towards sustainability. It seems that after two weeks of negotiations, which ended on Friday 17^th June, there is very little to show for it.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Oman

Whilst Middle East and North Africa nations were fairly absent from the talks, some countries did manage to make an impact. Unsurprisingly, Saudi Arabia made the headlines (again) for their attempts to delay the progress of the talks by insisting that agreement wasn’t necessary for another 18 months.

They were also keen to revive their demand that they should receive compensation for the loss of oil revenue in a post-oil future. Kuwait, Oman and Qatar were similarly criticized for holding up talks and were awarded the ‘Fossil of the Day’ by the Climate Action Network, which is an alliance of various green NGO’s.

Saving Kyoto Protocol

The rift between developing and developed countries seemed to grow as the G77 group (which consists of developing countries) pointed out that the money promised to them 18 months ago to allow them to adjust to climate change had not been delivered. They also demanded that developed nations commit to a 50 percent cut in emission below 1990 levels by 2020 under an extended Kyoto Protocol.

Egypt, speaking for the Arab Group, called the Kyoto Protocol the most important legal instrument addressing climate change and urged Annex I countries (developed nations) to respect their legal commitment to a second commitment period.  Apart from these brief mentions, the Middle East didn’t really get much of say in the talks.

The focus seemed to be more on the EU nations as they need to be working towards a new legally binding agreement to cut their emissions as well as providing adaptation funds for developing nations who will bear the burnt of climate-change induced disasters.

::Image via Adopt A Negotiator/flickr

The post Bonn: The Latest Climate Talks and the Middle East appeared first on Green Prophet.

Not every country whose representatives attended the climate talks in Mexico are pleased with the outcome. CNN reports that Bolivia sought to block what is being dubbed the “Cancun Agreement,” saying that the text of that agreement is hollow, and that the failure will lead to loss of human life.

Even so, tiny rhetorical steps were taken, and the United States and Mexico were eager to call the conference a success. In addition to sparing forests worldwide, a Green Climate Fund to help poor nations combat climate change is supposed to be established and Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) will be funded under the UN.Bolivia is particularly opposed to the failure to extend the Kyoto Protocol that expires in 2012 since it means that industrial nations have not put serious emissions reductions measures in place. The United States, which never signed on to the pact, is the world’s worst greenhouse gas offender.

Instead, a plan that was proposed by Qatar and that is bound to make oil states happy as it extends the lifetime of their industries, the United Nations has included CCS as part of its Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). This technology – the efficacy and safety of which is still in question – will allow fossil fuel producers capture emissions and potentially bury them deep underground.

Rich states are expected to reduce their carbon emissions up to 40% from 1990 levels by 2020, but the details of how that will be accomplished will only be discussed next year in Durban, South Africa – at the next climate gathering.

One potentially positive outcome is the promise to established the Green Climate Fund, up to $100 billion by 2020, which will help poor countries. Critics note that no real discussion was given to how that fund will be generated, or how it will be allocated. One journalist based in Africa, Jeffrey Barbee, notes that the World Bank has been appointed as the interim guardian of the fund. He worries that it will be allocated to large “greenwashing” firms and that they monies will not trickle down to green grassroots initiatives.

Even so, most delegates and environmentalists feel less pessimistic about the outcome of Cancun than they blanket depression that characterized the summit of Copenhagen.

Christiana Figueres, the UN’s chief negotiator at the conference, told CNN that Cancun had “reignited” hope.

“Nations have shown they can work together under a common roof, to reach consensus on a common cause. They have shown that consensus in a transparent and inclusive process can create opportunity for all,” she said in a statement.

But Bolivia is far less enthusiastic, according to the paper.

“For us, this is not a step forward. It is a step back, because what is being done here is postponing without limit the discussion on the Kyoto Protocol,” Bolivian Ambassador Pablo Solon told delegates early Saturday.

:: CNN

More on climate change discussions:

Is the Middle East taking Climate Change Seriously?

Climate Change

Climate Change Denial and the Climate of Fear

image via UN Climate Talks

The post Cancun Ends On Slightly Better Note Than Copenhagen appeared first on Green Prophet.