According to the latest findings by global risk-analyser Maplecroft, Arab Spring countries are at greater risk of rising food prices in the coming year

It’s no secret that the high price of basic food staples were a contributing factor to the revolts which began in Tunisia and Egypt and sparked the ‘Arab Spring’. The protesters took to the streets waving bread and asking for equality and an end to corruption. Today, however, it seems little has changed since those protests in terms of the cost of food. According to the latest food price forecasts for 2013 by global risk-analyser Maplecroft, food prices are actually likely to rise again in the region. What’s more: countries involved in the protests around the Arab world are particularly at risk of rising food price shocks.

“The drivers of the ‘Arab Awakening’ were varied and complex and included long standing public anger at high levels of governmental corruption and oppressive tactics against populations and political opposition,” states Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst. “When these factors combine with food insecurity, sparked by rising global prices, it can create an environment for social unrest and regime change.”

Back in 2007/8, a global food crisis resulted in several food riots across the region including places such as Yemen and Egypt. This year, the tenuous nature of global food security was back on the agenda due to the USA’s worst drought in 50 years and a 10% drop in production across countries from the former Soviet Union. These low crop yields have lead to to a global food price rise of 6% in July 2012. A report by Rabobank, a financial specialist in agro-commodities, estimates that price of food staples could rise by as much as 15% by June 2013, resulting in record high food prices.

“Food price forecasts for 2013 provide a worrying picture,” states Maplecroft’s Head of Maps and Indices Helen Hodge. “Although a food crisis has not emerged yet, there is potential for food related upheaval across the most vulnerable regions, including sub-Saharan Africa.” In the Middle East and North Africa region, the countries at greatest risk include Yemen, Syria and Libya (who along with Iraq are classified as ‘high risk’). Those defined as at ‘medium risk’ of food price hikes include Egypt and Tunisia.

Maplecroft explains that the region remains at elevated risk of food price fluctuations due to its heavy reliance on US and Russians crops. Whilst they are so dependent on cereal imports they wil remain vulnerable to market prices.

The Food Security Risk Index has been developed for governments, NGOs and business to help identify those countries which may be susceptible to famine and societal unrest stemming from food price fluctuations. Maplecroft reaches its results by evaluating the availability, access and stability of food supplies in 197 countries, as well as the nutritional and health status of populations, the organization states.

For more on food prices across MENA see:

Rising Food Prices Behind Riots in Algeria and Tunisia

Arab Protests Affect World Food Prices

How Climate Change Contributed to the Syrian Uprising

Image Arab girls harvesting in Bethlehem via Ryan Rodrick Beiler / Shutterstock.com

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Iranians may have turned to aubergines due to chicken shortages – but the world over may be forced to go vegetarian due to food shortages in the next 40 years

According to the latest findings, the world’s population may have to switch almost completely to a vegetarian diet over the next 40 years to avoid catastrophic food shortages. Water scientists are concerned that as the global population increases by another two billion by 2050, there simply won’t be enough water to support cattle and so a bigger portion of our diet will have to come directly from crops. Animal protein-rich food consumes five to 10 times more water than a vegetarian diet. As it stands, 20% of the average human’s diet is animal based and this will have to drop to just 5% to feed the world’s growing population. Could you live on one quarter of the meat you are currently enjoying?

The report “Feeding a thirsty world: Challenges and opportunities for a water and food secure world”, which was issued by the Stockholm International Water Institute, states that to secure sufficient global food supplies drastic changes will have to be made to our eating behaviours.

“Feeding everyone well is a primary challenge for this century. Overeating, undernourishment and waste are all on the rise and increased food production may face future constraints from water scarcity,” said report editor Dr. Anders Jägerskog. “We will need a new recipe to feed the world in the future.” Speaking to The Guardian, Malik Falkenmark and colleagues at the Stockholm International Water Institute (SIWI) added: “There will be just enough water if the proportion of animal-based foods is limited to 5% of total calories and considerable regional water deficits can be met by a … reliable system of food trade.”

If these changes aren’t made, the report states that the current trends in food production could lead to increased shortages and intense competition for scare water resources in many regions across the world. Intense competition for scare resources has in fact already begun with many Middle Eastern countries buying up tracts of fertile land in African nations. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Qatar are all highlighted in the report as new investors of land due to the water shortages they are experiencing at home.

The stern report from SIWI comes hot on the heels of concerns raised by Oxfam and the UN that we may have to prepare for the second global food crisis in five years. Oxfam fears that a price spike will have a devastating impact on countries that rely heavily on food imports which includes the Middle East and North Africa. Food shortages in 2008 led to civil unrest in 28 countries including Egypt which saw demonstrators protesting the high cost of bread.

::The Guardian

Image of raw vegetables via Shutterstock.com

For more on food and water shortages in the Middle East see:

How Climate Change Contributed to The Syrian Uprising

Rising Food Prices Behind Riots In Algeria and Tunisia

World Population Hits 7 Billion Today

2012: Thousands Face Displacement Due to Middle Eastern Land Grab

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According to the Worldwatch Institute’s latest report on land grab, the oil-rich Gulf nations are big buyers of foreign land

Since 2000, an estimated 70.2 million hectares of agricultural land worldwide has been sold or leased by private or public investors. Most of that land grab took place between 2008 and 2010 and most of the land bought was in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The buyers, however, were a little more dispersed with Brazil, India, China, East Asian nations, the US and the UK topping the list.

The oil-rich Gulf nations of the Middle East, however, were close behind making up one of the major groups of buyers. Indeed Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar alone bought up 4.6 million hectares of land over the decade. And other nations such as Egypt and Jordan have also been buying up fertile land abroad.

According to the latest report by the Worldwatch Institute, the “oil-rich but arid Gulf states made up the final group of major land investors.” Although they are not buying very much compared to the emerging economies (and their growing populations) of Brazil, India and China who together make up 25% of all land purchases, they are still significant buyers for their size. There is also a strong pattern of South-South purchasing or regionalised buying. For example, in the Middle East countries such as Saudi and the UAE have been buying land in Sudan but also more locally in Algeria and Morocco.

Worldwatch author Cameron Scherer said, “most of the data paint one of two pictures: First, there is a new ‘South-South’ regionalism, in which emerging economies invest in nearby, culturally affiliated countries. The other trend is one of wealthy (or increasingly wealthy) countries, many with little arable land, buying up land in low-income nations—-especially those that have been particularly vulnerable to the financial and food crises of recent years.”

Land grab can be defined as the large-scale purchase of agricultural land by foreign investors. The latest report by the Worldwatch Institute brings together data gathered by a network of 45 civil and research society organization which documented 1,006 land deals covering 70.2 million hectares of land from around the world. The data shows a clear peak of land purchasing in 2009 following the food crisis of 2007-08 which saw a rise in the cost of staple foods.

The food crisis of 2008 was also sparked by the rising cost of fuel and oil prices. This led to countries buying up agricultural land hoping to make the most of the rising costs or to protect themselves by garnering a little food security. Africa, with it’s huge land mass, was the main target. In fact, approximately 56.2 million hectares of the land purchased was in Africa.

Although we tend to think of land grab as closely linked to food and food security, the Worldwatch Institute’s report found that a quarter of land grab was not linked to agricultural projects. Upto 11 percent of investors are in the forestry sector, and 8 percent are from the mining industry, livestock, or tourism sectors.

The implications of land grab whilst unclear do not look promising. In many cases, the deal done between investors and the local government displaces local farmers who often work the land but lack formal land rights or access to legal support. The use of industrial agriculture and other related practices can also have negative implication on the land’s quality and the environment surrounding it.

As the Worldwatch Institute state: “In the absence of clear regulations, robust enforcement mechanisms, government transparency, and channels for civil society participation, further investments in land may benefit a group of increasingly wealthy investors at the expense of those living in the targeted land areas.”

: Image of African farmer via Shutterstock.com

For more on land grabs by the Middle East see:

Global Land Grabs: Benefits, Emerging Dangers and Growing Anxieties

Jordanian Bank Sanabel Buys One Quarter of A Congo Forest

Africa Up For Sale: Is the Middle East Buying?

The post African Land Grab Continues – Middle East Is Major Buyer appeared first on Green Prophet.

From food shortages in Syria to green energy in Jordan, this news round-up will help keep you in the know

It’s been busy here at GreenProphet HQ and the stories that have got us talking this week include the wind-powered minesweeper, shocking seal killing revelations as well the upcoming first anniversary of the Fukushima disaster.  These major stories may have stolen the limelight but I’ve scoured the internet for interesting tidbits on all the latest green news from the region. This includes a petition for Green energy in Jordan, food shortages in Syria and also the dangers of equating climate change to security- especially in the Middle East. So read on and tell us what stories have caught your eye this week.Syria faces more food shortage worries

Political conflict, price hikes and import challenges are adding up to an increasingly precarious food situation for Syrians. IRIN reports that unrest has also made it difficult for aid workers to provide support to the estimated 1.4 million who have become food insecure since March 2011.
::IRIN News

Support Green Energy in Jordan
Ayah Alfawaris has created a petition to ask the ministry of energy and mineral resource in Jordan to pursue green energy. Titled as the ‘wake up call’, it states it wants to send a loud and clear message to world leaders and decision makers to take a significant step towards clean energy. The demands are listed below- if you like what you read you can sign the petition here.

We demand the minister of energy and mineral resources to start three major renewable energy projects (solar, wind, geothermal, etc) in the south, north and the middle of Jordan and they must be nationally and independently planned, supervised and worked for.
We demand that these projects exploit Jordan’s natural renewable resources to produce a minimum of 500kWh in the south, north, and middle regions of Jordan, offsetting the demands of the less fortunate areas, towns, and villages.
:: Change.org

Dangers of Framing Climate Change as a Security in MENA
Kate Harris has an interesting piece at Alternet highlighting the dangers of linking climate change issues to security:

In many ways, framing climate change as a security issue has helped to raise awareness of its critical importance. It may even have contributed to increased policy traction.

But it is a dangerous tactic to gain popular attention. First, for those who want to identify the possible connections between a changing climate and the potential for increased violent conflict, nuance is key (as un-sexy as that may be). Second, it is unwise to promote such a narrative, given the role of perceptions in conflict. It is not, as conflict and security folk would say, “conflict sensitive”.

Take the Levant (Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan and the occupied Palestinian territory) as an example. Evidence shows that perceptions matter. As an International Institute for Sustainable Development report argues, “in the context of continuing distrust and political tension it is possible to imagine that allocations of resources could become increasingly tense. Control over them may become perceived as an increasingly key dimension of national security, and resource scarcity could be a pretext for their greater militarisation”.

::Alternet

: Image via GreenProphet/flickr.

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