When all else fails, run to wealthy Saudi Arabia. That seems to be the prevailing thought among Egyptian officials at a loss to resolve the ongoing dispute with Ethiopia over Nile water rights. 

At one point it seemed that the two countries might be able to resolve their differences over the Renaissance Dam construction project in Ethiopia, which threatens Egypt’s already precarious water supply.

In a bizarre twist, Egypt at one point proposed to help with the project’s construction.

But talks between them and Sudan broke down and Ethiopia continues to adopt a fairly noncooperative stance over water rights that were established by colonial powers in 1929.

Politically crippled back home and in no position to exert any kind of power, Egypt has conveyed plans to play its only trump card to ensure its population of nearly 81 million has some semblance of water security: getting Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries on board.

Related: Saudi Star Among Firms Behind Thousands of Forced Relocations in Ethiopia

“A detailed report is currently being prepared to examine and explain Egyptian concerns relating to the building of the dam, in the absence of a clear agreement with Ethiopia about it, an Egyptian official told Al Monitor. “The final draft of the report, which explains the concerns over the repercussions the construction of the dam will have on Egypt and Sudan, will be sent to the International Panel of Experts.”

The same official told the paper that Egypt has received reassurances from both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (but not Qatar, notably) that they are on board to help with any issues related to national security.

Mahmoud Abu Zeid, who heads up the Arab Water Council, told the paper that Gulf countries could definitely persuade Ethiopia to reconsider its position with Egypt as long as the two countries reached a consensus, while an Egyptian diplomat who asked to remain anonymous was more direct.

“Any change in the amount or terms of monies given to the Addis Ababa government will greatly contribute in compelling Ethiopia into reassessing its stance towards Egypt, as well as committing to a serious and constructive dialogue in order to resolve the continuing crisis that exists between the two countries concerning the Renaissance Dam, the official told Al Monitor.

Since Saudi Arabia invests more money in Ethiopia than any other country – up to $3 billion in 2011, it probably doesn’t make much sense to test their loyalty.

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The rhetoric between the two countries reached a feverish pitch last week, prompting local media to hint at the possibility that Egypt would go to war to secure its share of the Nile River, while Ethiopia allegedly said it would be prepared to defend the project at all costs.

However, a spokesperson for Egypt’s armed forces assured Reuters that it’s far too soon to talk about war. And that makes sense.

Ethiopia still hasn’t secured sufficient funding to get the project off the ground, and if it does get funding from the World Bank or similar development organizations, it will likely come with peaceable conditions.

Still, the issue is testy enough that Egypt’s foreign minister Hohamed Kamel Amr is planning a visit to Ethiopia and Sudan in order to reach an agreement that would bode well for Egypt’s population of 80+ million.

One major concern is that the Grand Renaissance Dam will deplete the Nile River’s flow to below the 75 billion cubic meters over a five year period, which is necessary to sustain the water levels that both Egypt and Sudan are accustomed to.

Another is that Ethiopia’s failure to conduct legitimate environmental impact assessments and then follow through with sound development practices could lead to the contamination of the Blue Nile.

Egypt is expected to enter into tripartite discussions with Ethiopia and Sudan in order to reach an agreement that works for all three nations.

:: Egypt Independent

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But the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (EEPCO) recognizes the danger of relying too much on hydropower, which is an erratic and possibly endangered source of energy. While the country has the staggering potential to produce 45,000 megawatts of hydroelectricity, geothermal also offers promise – so much so that the World Bank has backed a plan to conduct preliminary exploration and drilling.

Towards the end of last month, the Development Bank of Ethiopia unveiled plans to spend USD 20 million to explore sites in the country that have especially good geothermal potential.

The bank has plans to spend an additional USD20 million at a later stage, The Guardian reports.

This initiative is made possible by a USD40 million World Bank grant issued in May last year designed to spur renewable energy generation in Ethiopia and environmentalists are no doubt hopeful that a new focus on geothermal may relax hydroelectric ambitions.

International Rivers, which has been following Ethiopia’s dam boom very closely, paid a recent visit to the construction site of the Grand Renaissance Dam and expressed a number of concerns namely.

These include the probable displacement of more than 5,000 villagers, the risk of erosion and sedimentation and an apparent dismissal of these risks ahead of construction, as well as habitat loss.

“Ethiopia has been heavily deforested, but the Benishangul-Gumuz region where the dam is being built is one of the few places in the country where remnant forest vegetation still exists,” the environmental advocacy group wrote in a field report.

“The local community depends heavily on forest resources for their livelihoods (e.g., hunting, gathering of fruits, honey, firewood, medicinal plants, etc). The dam reservoir is expected to flood 1,680 square kilometers, 90% of which is forest. Road construction to the site will also impact forests.”

Geothermal, by contrast, is one of the most benign sources of renewable energy available.

When initial exploration is complete, certain private companies will be invited to build and operate geothermal power plants, including Britain’s Cluff Geothermal.

Managing Director George Day told the paper that they have already conducted a “scoping environmental impact assessment” near the town of Metehara, and that the country’s regulatory framework is not yet prepared for independent power producers.

They are hopeful, however, that these barriers will come down within the next six months or so.

:: The Guardian

Image of Dallol Geothermal Area, Shutterstock

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An African Market

At an African Union meeting in Ethiopia’s capital, President Morsi sought support from other Nile Basin countries to rebuild Egypt and a stronger “African Market,” reports The National.

“I would like to officially announce that Egypt has a desire to work towards a common African market,” he said. “Egypt will use its human and financial resources to ensure that. We stress our concern with education, health, construction and development.”

Naturally Egypt and Sudan would like to continue their long held monopoly on the Nile’s water, but a coalition of the remaining basin countries and a $4.8 billion dam project jeopardizes their privileged access.

Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has been fighting to reclaim Ethiopia’s fair share of the Nile River in order to develop the country’s agricultural and electricity sectors. But environmentalists are concerned that the hastily-planned Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will have negative environmental and social consequences. A team of experts analyzing its impact will release its findings next year.

Other critics warn that despite issuing bonds to finance the dam’s construction, the country can’t afford a project of this scale.

Egypt’s Bargaining Power

To date Egypt has been able to use its political sway to discourage international investors from supporting the Renaissance dam project, but that has not alleviated fears that its 83 million strong populace will lose one of its only steady supplies of water.

Former Minister of Water and Irrigation Mohamed Nasr El Din Allam expressed concern in March that Ethiopia’s dam will cause great “political, economic and social instability” in Egypt. And now Ethiopia has planned to make the dam even deeper than originally planned.

Instead of digging to 90 meters, Ethiopia hopes to expand the dam’s depth to 150 meters in order to optimize the amount of electrical power that can be produced. The dam will also provide irrigation for a variety of agricultural projects.

Meanwhile, even with its current share of the Nile’s water, Egypt will still face shortages in the years to come. Now is a good time to take water conservation, water recycling, and irrigation efficiency more seriously back home.

:: The National

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