The initial rhetoric surrounding Ethiopia’s Grand Millennium Dam seems to have subsided, but the plans to proceed with Africa’s largest hydroelectric plant are still very much in place. Although it is yet unclear how Ethiopia will raise funds for the project it can scarcely afford, combined with four other dams Ethiopia hopes to develop in concert with the Blue Nile’s 5,000 MW plant slated for the Benishangul-Gumuz region, the country hopes to produce a total of 15,000 MW of hydroelectric power by 2015. But in his zealous pursuit to reclaim the powerful Nile waters from Egypt and Sudan and generate economic autonomy for his people, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is oblivious to one very important factor that could derail his ambitions: climate change.

What Environmental Impact Assessment?

In 2009, Ethiopia submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment for another controversial dam, Gibe III. It was so flawed that the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the Euro Investment Bank all rescinded their support of this project according to a National Geographic report.

For the Grand Millennium Dam project, no environmental impact assessment has been vetted and there doesn’t appear to be any indication that one will transpire.

Just like Gibe III?

The Gibe III project will reduce water levels and increase salinity at Lake Turkana, which, according to Claudia Carr from the the University of California, Berkeley, is already close to being unfit for cattle or human consumption. The dam is likely to push the lake over the edge, jeopardizing the lives of 500,000 people already on the brink of starvation. The project also puts certain wildlife at risk.

These are compelling reasons to suspect that the Grand Millenium Dam, which originates at Lake Tana and will create an artificial lake that will hold 63 billion cubic meters of water, will have similar consequences if no effort is made to mitigate its environmental impact.

When the rains don’t come

Climate change presents an even more urgent reason to investigate the long-term feasibility of this project. Climatologist Chris Funk of the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) and his colleagues estimate that climate change is expected to alter the hydrological cycles in the wet Ethiopian highlands, reducing rainfall by 20%.

Lori Pottinger from International Rivers, which has been monitoring many of Ethiopia’s 20 dam projects, says that no attention is being given to the possible impact of climate change on the country’s hydroelectric future.

:: National Geographic

More stories on the Nile Dam, Ethiopia, and Egypt:

Ethiopia Can’t Afford the New Nile Dam

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Ethiopia Gives Revolutionary Egypt a Break over Nile Dam

image via RealityZone

The post How Climate Change Could Affect New Nile Dam appeared first on Green Prophet.

In order to give Egypt time to elect a new parliament following the revolution that toppled President Mubarak, Ethiopian Prime Minister Melis Zenawi has agreed to postpone the Nile Basin Agreement. The agreement will dramatically change Egypt’s Nile river water rights, divesting the country of its longstanding monopoly.

The two countries have been locked in a struggle after Ethiopia began construction on the massive Millennium Dam Project earlier this year. An expensive endeavor that one of the world’s poorest nations can scarcely afford, if completed the new Nile dam could provide Ethiopians with 5,250MW of energy.

Egypt send a 47 member delegation to Ethiopia to smooth out the Nile River conflict. Included in that throng were three presidential hopefuls, students who helped to topple former President Hosni Mubarak, as well as several prominent Egyptian opposition leaders.

Hamdian Sabhy, Hisham Basetawsi, and Bosayna Kamel are among the presidential hopefuls that attempted to sway Ethiopia’s stance on the Nile waters. Despite rejecting pleas to provide studies depicting how the new dam will impact downstream countries, Ethiopia has lightened its former grip and will delay signing the Nile Basin agreement.

According to Ethiopia forums, Zenawi also agreed to forming a committee of Ethiopian, Egyptian, and Sudanese experts to look into the Millennium Dam project.

Zenawi’s new position comes in deference to the historic revolution that is expected to usher in a new generation of Egyptian leadership.

:: Ethiopia Forums

More on Ethiopia, Egypt, and the new Nile Dam:

Defiant Ethiopia to Proceed with Massive Nile Dam

Egypt Holds on Tight to Nile Water Rights

image via google

The post Ethiopia Gives Revolutionary Egypt A Break Over Nile River appeared first on Green Prophet.

Defiant Ethiopia is proceeding with its plan to build the Grand Millennium Dam on the Nile river, but what kind of dam can they build without cash flow? Following the formation of the Entebbe Treaty, which gives the six upstream nations more control over the Nile’s flow, and amidst the political upheaval that has the Pharaoh nation scrambling to keep the country afloat, Egypt has made some conciliatory moves towards Ethiopia. But just how seriously need they take Ethiopia’s posturing?

According to The Economist, the upstream population exceeds that of the two downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt, by 110 million people. Considered the greater source of flow, the Blue Nile originates at Lake Tana in Ethiopia before merging with the faster-flowing White Nile river in Khartoum.

Logically, upstream countries deserve more rights to the Nile waters even though since colonial times, Egypt’s monopoly has been secure.

Perhaps capitalizing on that country’s current political weakness, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi started shifting the status quo on April 2, 2011, as he began construction on the dam that is expected to generate 5.2 gigawatts of electricity, thereby increasing by five times the country’s electricity generation within the next few years.

But there’s one important problem: Ethiopia lacks the necessary funds to see the project to completion. In fact, they can barely get it off the ground.

China has agreed to finance turbines and other equipment to the tune of approximately $1.8 billion but the entire construction project is expected to cost $4.8 billion.

To date, the World Bank and other investors are loathe to get involved given that Ethiopia has not yet developed sound partnerships with other countries in order to share the electricity. And The Economist notes that the bond issue which the country is pushing on its residents “on patriotic grounds” is likely to materialize much money.

Even if the other upstream countries – Burundi, Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda – are interested in securing more water rights, none of them are in the financial position to lend a monetary hand.

:: The Economist

More on the Nile River and Ethiopia’s Dam:

Egypt Holds on Tight to Nile Water Rights

Defiant Ethiopia To Proceed With Massive Dam on the Nile River

American Elections are Bad for the Nile Delta

image via wikicommons

The post Ethiopia Can’t Afford The New Nile Dam appeared first on Green Prophet.