Seconds before our bomb shelter alert started my dogs came to paw on the front door to be let inside. It’s as if they know something is coming before we do. “There are many anecdotes about animals being able to foresee disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, but hardly any systematic studies,” says Martin Wikelski, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Radolfzell and professor at the University of Konstanz. “But scientists in this field don’t have it easy, either,” he grumbles. “One can quickly be dismissed as a sort of diviner.”

Related: goats are fire-fighting friends

He would like to test whether animals can be used as biological early-warning systems for natural disasters such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. He’s even had his idea patented: the project, which he submitted to the European Patent Office with the support of the technology transfer company Max Planck Innovation, is called DAMN (Disaster Alert Mediation using Nature). Insurance companies have already expressed interest.

He tells the story of Rome and that people were lying peacefully in their beds as danger approached from the north. The Celts were marching toward the city, threatening to destroy it. The geese woke sleeping inhabitants with their loud quacking and thus saved the Capitoline.

Today, every guide book on Rome includes the story of the vigilant geese, but this story is by no means the only example of animals prophesying impending doom. Roman naturalist Pliny the Elder, who died when Mount Vesuvius erupted in 79 CE, reported that birds become restless before earthquakes. In modern times, too, we’ve seen time and again animals behaving strangely before natural disasters – and such diverse species as elephants, dogs, snakes, toads, fish, bees and even ants.

In February 1975, near the Chinese metropolis of Haicheng, numerous snakes were seen that had slithered out of their hideaways in the middle of winter and frozen to death in the snow. Shortly thereafter, the city was rocked by earth tremors with a magnitude of 7.3. The residents were evacuated in time due in no small part to the reptiles’ abnormal behavior.

Related: earthquake equipment can predict conflict an

In March 2009, at San Ruffino Lake in Italy’s Abruzzo region, the toads that are normally found here in great numbers suddenly disappeared in the middle of the spawning season. A few days later, an earthquake destroyed the nearby town of L’Aquila.

“When animals go crazy, run away from the sea and go to the highlands,” advises an Indonesian children’s song. It comes from Simeulue island, off the coast of Sumatra, close to the epicenter of the quake. Because the inhabitants had learned from their ancestors to correctly interpret the behavior of chickens and water buffalo, they were able to save themselves from the tsunami. Despite enormous property damage, there were only a few deaths on Simeulue.

Wikelski records animal migrations and behaviors around the globe. His focus isn’t restricted to migratory birds, but includes a broad range of wildlife. Using radio transmitters, he tracks storks on their way from Europe to Africa, monarch butterflies on their journey from Canada to Mexico, and the wanderings of rodents that disseminate seeds in the South American rainforest.

The small tachographs the scientist uses for this can not only report the exact GPS coordinates of the wearer, but also measure acceleration in different directions. This enables the researchers to draw conclusions about the animal’s behavior.

“This technology allows us to conduct our observations around the clock,” says Wikelski. “If we attach transmitters to different animals in regions prone to natural disasters and record their behavior, we can subsequently find out which animals would have redicted, for example, a volcanic eruption or an earthquake.”

Wikelski and his colleagues launched an unusual field trial in April 2011. “If we want to study how animals behave before a volcanic eruption or an earthquake, we can’t do it in the lab,” the researcher explains. “We have to actually wait for such an event to occur.”

Although Etna is one of the best researched volcanos in the world, it has not yet been possible to reliably predict such events over the long term – especially as regards the intensity of the eruption. Martin Wikelski and his colleagues thus wanted to find out whether there are animals that can do this better.

In their search for suitable candidates, the scientists also turned to ancient myths for inspiration: “Originally, we really did consider geese,” recalls Wikel ski. “Then we asked locals who have been living with their animals at the foot of Mount Etna for generations. They said: Forget the geese, use goats instead!”

The people in the region knew their animals extremely well and thus knew that they have a keen instinct for impending natural phenomena. “A shepherd then promptly made eight goats available to us,” reports the behavioral scientist.

Most of the time, the animals live in small herds on the slopes of the volcano. They are driven into the valley only twice each year. The scientists used one such opportunity to fit the goats with transmitter collars in place of the bells they would normally get. Weighing 390 grams, the devices, which Wikelski had specially produced for the experiment, record both the exact GPS position and the acceleration on three axes and allow the data to be read via a local radio network.

Back home on their computer, the researchers can access the data and, using special software, visualize the movement patterns and the behavior of the goats on the monitor.

Whether the animals sleep, eat, run or jump over the lava rocks – each of these behaviors produces a characteristic acceleration pattern.

They confirmed that Wikelski’s idea actually worked: whenever a major eruption was imminent, the animals were already perturbed hours before, running up and down or hiding under bushes and trees when they had the opportunity.

The International Space Station is about to receive a small antenna to carry out the work to try and measure and understand nature’s 6th sense.

::ICARUS

(This article was summarized from an article produced by the Max Planck Institute for ICARUS)

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Turkey suffered a devastating earthquake in its southeast region of Antakya in 2023. Not because they weren’t prepared but because of the failures and corruption inside the Turkish building authority where contractors cut corners without oversight.

Antakya, built on the site of the ancient city of Antioch, was one of the cities hit hardest by the earthquake on Feb. 6, 2023. Much of the modern city crumbled.

But Antakya needs to be rebuild and the the UK-based starchitect firm Foster + Partners announces it is working closely with several local NGOs and Turkish civil agencies (including the Turkish Design Council, the Turkish Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism) to rebuild Ankara sustainably and hopefully securely this time.

We hope they are consulting the ultimate architecture reference book Habitat by Sandra Pesik.

Buro Happold, MIC-HUB, and Turkish practices DB Architects and KEYM Urban Renewal Centre collaborated on the Antakya proposal. The plan will reportedly be implemented in a 30-square-kilometer (11.6-square-mile) planning area.

They are using farming language such as the “regeneration plan” which includes eight separate ‘design principles and among them are to:

Build on safe land,

Improve circulation,

Improve open spaces,

Create new districts,

Layer neighborhoods,

Enhance connectivity at a city and neighborhood scale, and, finally,

Build back.

No timelines for its start or completion have been provided at this time.

The full details of Foster + Partners’ plan for an urban recovery of the earthquake-damaged Turkish city of Antakya and Hatay province have been made publicly available for the first time since the project was announced last October.

Bruno Moser, Senior Partner, Head of Urban Design, Foster + Partners said: “We have been inspired by the resilience of the people of Antakya, and share their passion for their unique, historic city. Our strategy does not offer a ‘one size that fits all’ vision.

“It balances the historic spirit of the place with improvements and enhancements that will support a sustainable future for Antakya. We have developed the vision underpinned by the fact that reconstruction following a natural disaster is not merely about buildings but about rebuilding communities, feelings of safety and belonging, and rebuilding trust.”

An estimated 53,000 people died from the 2023 earthquake.

And with an estimated 80 percent of the city destroyed, there is an urgent need to reimagine and rebuild for future generations. The new Foster + Partners masterplan, the firm says, “aims to retain the cherished spirit of the town and pre-earthquake characteristics in terms of scale, relationships, and configurations, reinforcing the local character and climate.”

A significant part of the process has been understanding and embedding Hatay’s rich history into the vision. Other recent and historic disasters were used as case studies, with comparable rebuild attempts used to distil best practice that will support a sustainable future for Antakya.

The masterplan seeks to respect the urban character of the area and build anew in a way which makes the residents feel like they can be at home in the revitalised city. The design principles stipulate the need to retain the character of the historic streets of Antakya, overlaying on the existing road network and retaining the building scale and façade rhythm, according to Foster + Partners.

Antakya was colonised by the Turkish Empire but it was first known as Antioch on the Orontes – an Hellenistic Greek city founded by Seleucus I Nicator in 300 BC. It was one of the most important Greek cities of the Hellenistic period, serving as the capital of the Seleucid Empire and later as regional capital to both the Roman and Byzantine Empire. If you travel around Turkey today you will find thousands of archeological sites throughout the country surrounded by farms and villages.

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One of the largest provinces in Pakistan, Balochistan is located in the southwest corner of the country and bordered by Afghanistan and Iran; home to less than five percent of the country’s population, it is also one of the most dangerous regions.

Live Science talked to Shubab Khan, a geoscientist at the University of Houston, who has twice failed to source funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) that would allow him to study the poorly understood Chaman Fault – a major geological fault that stretches 528 miles, roughly the distance between San Diego and San Francisco in the United States. 

“Its location is in an area that is very difficult to do any traditional field work,” Khan told Live Science’s Our Amazing Planet. “I tried twice to submit proposals to [the NSF] and I got excellent reviews, but the review panel said I was risking my life to work in that area.”

The National Academy of Sciences has reportedly decided to support Khan’s efforts to explore this fault zone, which sprouted a mud volcano “island” near the town of Gwadar shortly after the 7.8 earthquake struck, though the research, like current relief efforts, could be hampered by security issues.

“There is a lot of animosity against the military in this area and since the Pakistani Army is leading the rescue efforts, it will be very difficult for them to operate, without coming under further attacks,”  Siddiq Baloch, editor of Balochistan Express, told Christian Science Monitor.

The two rockets were aimed at a military helicopter carrying chairman of National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Major Gen. Muhammad Saeed Aleem and other senior military officials, the paper reports. The group was assessing damage and mapping out a relief plan.

“For the first 24 hours no one could reach the [worst affected] areas. Even now most of the aid is stuck in Quetta [the capital city of the province], because security is a concern,” says Baloch.

“If the government had paid any attention to these areas from before and built health and medical facilities there, which are currently nonexistent, things would have not been so bad. Many of the critically injured continue to die since they are receiving no help,” he added.

Baloch believes that this catastrophe presents an ideal opportunity for the government to patch up their relationship with people in Balochistan, who consider their territory to be both neglected and occupied. He also fears the death toll could reach 1,000.

:: CS Monitor

Image via Al Jazeera

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A devastating earthquake has hit Turkey near its border with Iran. A 1976 earthquake in the same vicinity killed 5,000 people.

The Kandilli Observatory has reported that a very powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.3 on the richter scale has hit near the city of Van in eastern Turkey. Described as devastating and expected to worsen as a result of aftershocks, the earthquake will cause extreme shaking for approximately 49,000 people, violent shaking for 381,000 people, and severe shaking for 131,000. Although there are few details at present, Earthquake Report notes that the shake was felt in neighboring countries, which is a very bad sign, and that thousands of lives are at risk. Many homes have been destroyed, power has been cut in places, and many cell phones lack service.

image via USGS

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