Human civilization began with the growing of wheat in the fertile crescent. Fifteen thousand years ago in the Middle East, people started to select and later to cultivate strains of wheat and began farming, and the rest is, as they say, history. (You can read the history of ancient emer wheat here).

Warmth and sun is needed. But not too much. With the onset of climate change, temperature rises are actually beginning to cut into wheat yields. Although Egypt was one of the original lands of the fertile crescent, it has now become the world’s biggest importer. With Ethiopia damming the Nile, agriculture could change forever in the Nile region.

The North African and Middle Eastern countries of Algeria, Tunisia, Cypress and Egypt were still exporters of wheat as late as the nineteenth century. But as temperatures have risen in the Middle East, that has changed.
Egypt no longer can grow enough to export any surplus.

Increasingly, the first wheat farming region now relies on wheat supplies from places that only warmed up enough to able to support wheat farming in recent centuries.

Russia and Ukraine were insignificant wheat growers until the end of the 20th century. But as the world has warmed, the conditions have improved for farming wheat at higher latitudes. The region now provides 30% of the world’s wheat.

But, temperatures are not going to simply conveniently stop at the perfect temperature for wheat farming. This year, in got too hot for wheat, even in Russia, with temperature records that were broken worldwide. And with too much heat, yields drop. Russia lost a third of the wheat crop this year. It stopped exporting.

Egypt, as well as Tunisia, Algeria and Jordan, all reacted to the Russian ban by buying extra wheat on the spot market. Worldwide, wheat prices have nearly doubled in just four months from $4.26 a bushel.

Scientists estimate that even the small amount of wheat that Egypt can now produce for its own market could fall by another 15% by 2050 if temperatures increase by two degrees Celsius, and by more than a third if temperatures rise by four degrees.

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It is difficult to imagine a Middle Eastern home without tomatoes. It is a crucial ingredient in virtually every popular dish, including shakshuka. But lower income families in Jordan, Egypt, Israel, Syria and Lebanon are having to acclimate to this exact reality.

Most of the Middle East is buckling under a tomato shortage as a result of the summer’s crippling heat, as well as the proliferation of a tomato pest. Roughly a month ago, Israeli farmers warned that prices will be high at the markets while Egyptian wives unable to afford escalating costs are adding ketchup and food coloring to their traditional dishes. Some Jordanians are optimistic that they will be able to stabilize prices. Others are less so. 

President of the Jordanian Farmers Union (JFU), President Ahmad Faour told The Jordan Times that “the “severe” shortage of tomatoes in the local market caused prices to rise significantly, and the situation became “desperate” because all countries in the region were affected by the heatwaves and a devastating pest which automatically limited the government’s choices.”

However, Mr. Faour also expects prices to drop since some crops were not affected by either the heat or  the Tuta absoluta, which has mined so many other crops.

“Tomato farms in Ghor Al Safi and the southern governorates, which were not affected by the destructive insect, will provide local markets with adequate quantities,” he told the paper.

Anwar Haddad, an agriculture expert and executive director of the Jordan Exporters and Producers Association for Fruit and Vegetables was far less optimistic about the tomato crisis.

He told The Jordan Times that “tomatoes will remain in short supply in the coming days and prices of the produce will register no “significant” decrease.”

Mr. Haddad added that the Ghor Al Safi crops referred to are insufficient to meet the population’s demand.

Citrus was similarly unable to withstand the unprecedented high temperatures.

“Citrus fruit farms in the Jordan Valley, especially in the Northern Ghor, were deeply affected by the heatwaves,” which caused “profound” damage to oranges, lemons and grapefruit,” Faour told the paper, adding that “this will definitely harm the reputation of the Kingdom as an exporter of citrus fruits.”

While other Middle Eastern countries were impacted, Mr. Faour noted that Jordan cultivates its citrus crops at the lowest point on earth. Nonetheless, the citrus losses are less severe since Jordan will be possible to import from its neighbors.

Meanwhile tomatoes are in short supply and high demand in the entire region.

:: The Jordan Times

More on tomatoes:

The Tomato Has 790 Names! Scientists Have Culled A Few

Israel’s Shriveled Vegetables Will Increase Market Prices

Fresh Tomato-Coriander Salad to Spice up Your Summer

image of leafminer via Eran Finkle

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