1. It’s a global pact that for the first time asks all countries to limit their greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Between now and the year 2100 participating nations must commit to enacting changes that will keep average global temperatures from rising another 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit between now and the year 2100.

3. Wealthy developed nations will give financial support to developing countries involved in the pact, to the tune of $100 billion USD per year by 2020. According to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change website, funding may come from bilateral or multilateral, public or private sources, including creative financing (such as the French contribution to the financial transaction tax). Public financing may take several forms: multilateral funds such as the Green Climate Fund; multilateral or regional institutions such as the World Bank; government contributions; and bilateral institutions such as the Agence Française de Développement. (This scheme stands apart from the Green Climate Fund: only part of this newly agreed sum will pass through the Fund.)

4. The treaty now heads to the national legislatures of the 195 involved countries. At least 55 countries representing 55% of the world’s emission must sign on before 2020.

The first UN Climate Change Conference was held in 1995 in Berlin, this international treaty to curb climate change has been twenty years in the making. But the heaviest lift remains as nations decide which parts of it will be legally required. Absent clear legal language to guarantee compliance, it’s too soon to tell if COP21 be any more effective than previous climate agreements which fell flat over performance monitoring and enforcement.

“A lot of that language is still in brackets,” Greenpeace representative Naomi Ages at told FRANCE 24 on Friday.

Watch this space.

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Dr Waskelar is president of Strategic Foresight Group.  Green Prophet has previously reported on his efforts specific to Jordan, Palestine and Israel, but this international think tank has worked with 50 countries across four continents. His op-ed continues below:

In December 2009, I met Walid Muallem, Foreign Minister of Syria, in his office in Damascus, along with an eminent British politician. He rolled out before us his vision of peace process with Israel in phases. He had two essential conditions. First, secured access to the waters of Tiberias should be guaranteed. Second, Turkey should underwrite the peace process. He said that the government in Damascus could trust only one state as the guarantor of its interests. It was Turkey under Erdogan’s leadership.

In our Blue Peace report, published in February 2011, Strategic Foresight Group proposed several solutions to use water as an instrument of peace and prosperity in the Middle East. (Editor’s note: the immensely readable Water Cooperation for a Secure World – Focus on the Middle East  can also be downloaded – link here). One of them was adapted from Muallem’s framework.

A month after the release of the report, Syria was engulfed with civil strife. The primary reason was the erosion of social contract between the state and its citizens. But one of the key contributing factors was drought and the failure to pursue regional water cooperation, which had forced many farmers into destitution and migration to overstretched cities. Syria’s most trusted ally turned into its most strident enemy. A regional war followed that now threatens to turn into a global confrontation.

In some other parts of the world, leaders have recognised the unstated relationship between water, peace and security. The relations between India and Bangladesh dramatically improved when a treaty for managing the Teesta River was drafted in a grand bargain over the security paradigm. In 2013, Strategic Foresight Group brought together leaders of the ruling and opposition parties in India and Bangladesh to prepare a framework that would lead to the signing of the Teesta River treaty and introduce a mechanism to avert water conflict for the next thousand years. In the former Yugoslavia, no sooner was the Dayton Agreement signed, did the newly born states enter into an agreement for collaborative management of the Sava River. It contributed to achieving peace and cooperation in the Balkans which had only seen death and violence until then.

As the subtle equation between water, war and peace was being revealed in different parts of the world, unnoticed by the global public opinion, Strategic Foresight Group took two steps. First, we developed a Water Cooperation Quotient for 219 shared river basins from 148 countries. It proved that any two countries engaged in active water cooperation do not go to war for any other reason.

Second, we collaborated with the Government of Switzerland to create a Global High Level Panel on Water and Peace in November 2015. Co-convened by the governments of 15 countries from all continents, the panel is chaired by Danilo Turk, former President of Slovenia. HRH Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan is a distinguished member of the body.

The panel will respond to appeals made by UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon to examine the linkages between water, peace and security. It will propose a global architecture to use water as an instrument of peace through financial incentives, establishment of hydro-diplomacy mechanisms, encouragement to form joint water management bodies in all basins, promotion of best practices and, most significantly, engagement of senior political leaders in the water discourse. The panel will hold consultations in different parts of the world and present its report to the United Nations system by December 2017.

If the panel succeeds in preparing an operational architecture, it will have an impact on the life of 2.3 billion people living in shared river basins of the developing world, with a combined annual economic product of $10 trillion. Over the years, as cooperative water management spreads, the incremental capital output ratio will go down and the military expenditure will also decline. This will create a peace dividend of $200 billion per year.

If the panel fails to propose a convincing global architecture, chaos will take place. At present, water resources are depleting at the rate of over 320 billion cubic meters in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. This is equal to ten Euphrates Rivers disappearing from the face of the earth every year. If this trend continues, there will be steep decline in food production and a fresh demand for about 200-300 million tonnes of food grains in the international market. This will raise food prices to unprecedented heights. Food riots will follow not only in Nepal and Nigeria but also in Peru and Paraguay. No country in the world will escape the calamity of high food prices, forced migration, terrorism, dictatorships and perhaps a World War starting in 2039.

Didier Burkhalter, Swiss Foreign Minister, cautioned at the launch of the Global High Level Panel, “Water is not just about development. It is also about security.” Syria had understood this in December 2009. But failure to act with urgency has driven the entire Middle East to the precipice. It is about time that the world wakes up before the story of Syria is repeated in every region.

Learn more about Strategic Foresight and their efforts in the Blue Peace Initiative at their website (link here).

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One hundred and ninety-five nations, each with a specific agenda. Scan ten facts brought to the table.  Can another day of discussion make headway into at least one theme?

• 2015 was the hottest year ever recorded.
• Earth will be 2.7 warmer by the end of the century if governments don’t cut CO2 emissions.
• Since 1993, sea levels have risen 3.2 mm annually.
• 2014 recorded 91 hurricanes, a new world record.
• Insurance companies lose $50 billion annually due to natural disaster and climate change.
• 3.3 million people die each year due to air pollution.
• 8% of species are threatened with extinction if global temperatures rise by 3% by 2100.
• The USA has used 250 billion gallons of water for fracking between 2005 through 2014.
• One square kilometer of virgin forest is lost every second around the planet.
• 10.1 million more people will be pushed below the poverty line.

“The atmosphere is good, things are positive, things are going in the right direction”, Fabius added. The betting window is open: let us hear which topics you think will be tackled, and what difference will another day make.

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While UN climate-conference delegates seek ways to cut world reliance on high-carbon fuels like oil, OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) confirmed that it would keep producing oil at current levels, estimated in excess of 31 million barrels a day, despite prices that continue to plummet. Arab activists are on the case.

Earlier this week activists gathered in front of the main plenary of the COP21 negotiations to express their frustration toward the current Saudi position and how the rest of Arab countries are following their lead at the climate talks underway in Paris.

“Right now, in the Arab Group, there is no peer pressure, there are no champions, so Saudi Arabia has been allowed to act as a blocker for much of the climate talks. Arab countries are standing silent and letting Saudi Arabia talk on their behalf. Morocco and Egypt have strong climate action plans and Jordan has the largest wind farm in the region, but due to their silence, their climate action and their reputations are being undermined. Will they keep hiding behind Saudi Arabia’s obstruction, or will they step out and represent the will for climate action in the region?”, said Safa’ al Jayoussi, head of climate campaign at IndyACT and CAN Arab World coordinator.

IndyACT and other youth activists staged a bit of performance art for international media, wherein negotiators tried to move towards an ambitious carbon-cutting agreement, but – tethered to the “oil industry”, they failed to make headway. “This reflects what is happening behind closed doors.  We are asking Arab countries who are leading in renewable energy to take the initiative in moving ahead with an ambitious agreement,” PanAfrican Climate Justice Alliance representative and CAN Arab World Coordinator Chakri Said said in a press release.

“The conference in Paris presents our leaders with the opportunity to take critical action, such as investing in clean energy and the removal of legal and structural obstacles by creating detailed national energy plans that facilitate a fast transition to a 100% renewable energy system. This is essential if we are to keep average temperature rises to no more than 1.5°C, ” said al Jayoussi.

IndyACT is the leading Arab non-governmental organization working on climate change policy.  Want to get involved on a local level?  Contact Ms. al Jayoussi (email link here).

Images from IndyAct

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This year’s Conference of the Parties, known as COP21, may turn out to be the one that finally addresses the ravages of human caused climate change. Or will it? COP21 comes on the heels of some of the worst climate issues that humankind has experienced in recent years; including intense typhoons and hurricanes; and crazy Middle East “heat domes” that may make parts of the ME uninhabitable by year 2100. Also included are worsening droughts in many locations, including India, Africa, and the United States.

Fossil fuels, especially heavily polluting ones like coal and petroleum are still being extensively used in most industrialized countries; especially so in China. These fuels could derail the global warming degree target of 2 degrees Celsius; the warming temperature increase limit to be agreed upon in this year’s conference. Even this amount, if possible to attain, would still result in significant damage to the global environment, especially to agriculture in developing countries.

This years conference In Paris France is being attended by many of the world’s top leaders, including US President Barack Obama and Chinese president Xi Jinping. XI’s
participation comes at a time when some of the worst air pollution levels ever recorded are choking cities like Beijing. Much more than speeches and photo ops are needed, however, to slow down the increasing effects of global warming and climate change; that many climatists are now attributing to be largely caused by over use of fossil fuels.

In an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, Christina Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,  said: ” A climate change treaty is in our shared interest.There is a good mood among countries to fight climate change. We need a legally binding treaty for all countries to adhere to; especially the large industrialized countries”. Ms. Figueres added that green technology projects must be accelerated; particularly those involving solar and wind energy.

Despite all the good intentions being expressed by the various high profile delegates attending this year’s conference, will an agreed upon climate change treaty be a situation
of “too little, too late” to deal with what is beginning to look like an irreversable reality? China, one of the worst pollutors on the planet, already has air pollution levels so high in Beijing that they are considered to be “extremely hazardous”.

Even in the USA, severe dust storms, normally attributed to other parts of world like the Middle East, are already occurring in states like Arizona as shown in this video

Reaching the agreed annual world temperature increase of 2 degrees Celsius is still not a very desirable level, taking the aforementioned “heat dome” phenomenom into account.
Large areas of countries like India, Kuwait and Iraq are already unlivable during the summer months. Weaning large industrial countries off dependence on fossel fuels will take years; and require heavy investments in infrastructure changes to renewable energy. Taking the example of the Arab Gulf region into account, do we have the time to reverse the ravages of climate change? Or is it already too late to do so?

More articles on climate change:

Crazy heat dome will mean no one can live in the Arab Gulf by 2100
Climate change “worst” is yet to come, UN report warns today
The wrath of global warming and the Middle East

Photo of effects of dangerous air pollution levels in Beijing, by Yahoo News/Andy Wong:

Photo Climate change image by  Tutu Foundation USA

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Pachauri, who lives in New Delhi, withdrew from an IPCC meeting in Kenya after Indian police started an investigation into a sexual harassment complaint against him earlier this month. A 29-year-old female researcher at TERI had filed a complaint with the Delhi police accusing the 75-year-old of repeated inappropriate behavior, both physically and through social media messages.

He has denied all charges, asserting that he was a victim of hacking, and that cyber criminals had accessed his computer and mobile phone without his permission to commit criminal acts using email, Facebook, and WhatsApp.

In a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Pachauri said that his inability to travel to Kenya showed he may be unable to ensure the “strong leadership and dedication of time and full attention by the chair” needed by the panel. “I have, therefore, taken the decision to step down from my position as chair of the IPCC some months before completion of my term,” he wrote, as reported by the Khaleej Times.

Local media reported that police had granted Pachauri “interim protection” from arrest until 23 February to enable him to “seek necessary relief” after he handed over his laptop to officers.

He has been chair of the IPCC since 2002.  Although his current term was due to end in October 2015, he maintained a significant role in preparations for the Paris climate summit where world leaders have pledged to agree to significant carbon emission cuts to curb global warming. Former U.S. vice-president Al Gore has expressed his strong belief that the Paris climate talks will be game-changing.

Speaking at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week in January, Gore said, “The odds are extremely high that the world will reach an agreement in Paris this year. The architecture has been negotiated, the signs are clear and easy to read. Agreement between China and the U.S. earlier this year represents a historic breakthrough.  Korea just become the world’s second largest carbon capture market. Two thirds of Canada’s regional governments are moving forward on carbon limits.  Take these developments and look to the end of this year.  It’s clear that the world is moving in the right direction.  Paris will be a turning point.”

In 2007, Gore and Pachauri jointly received the Nobel Peace Prize for their roles in promoting climate change. Two years earlier, Pachauri launched the Lighting a Billion Lives Initiative to bring solar-generated electricity to rural areas of India. He serves as chancellor of  TERI University and is chairman of the governing council of the National Agro Foundation (NAF). He is also chairman of the board of Columbia University’s International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Pachauri is controversial, despite his clear commitment to halting climate change.  In 2010, he admitted that an 2007 IPCC report was wrong in claiming there was a “very high” chance of glaciers disappearing from the Himalayas by 2035. The incident nearly discredited the entire organization, yet Pachauri refused to issue an apology, saying, according to The Independent, “You can’t expect me to be personally responsible for every word in a 3,000-page report.”  The report was also alleged to have cited magazine articles as reference documents.

He was also lampooned for a steamy novel he penned titled Return to Amora, the story of  an elderly academic reminiscing on journeys through India, Peru and the U.S. The UK Telegraph described the 2010 release as a “smutty” romance novel, laced with lots of sex and a cameo appearance from Hollywood actress Shirley MacLaine.

There is no word about who will replace him.

Image of Rajendra Pachauri from YouTube

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