A prolonged drought in Morocco is causing serious problems for the agricultural sector. Local Authorities predict that the 2024 wheat harvest will be reduced by almost 50 per cent. The Arab Spring happened during a drought and raising wheat prices. Can we expect upheaval in the Magreb connected to this prolonged drought?

This image above, acquired by one of the Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites on 3 August 2024, shows the province of Sidi Kacem, once the heart of cereal production in Morocco, but largely uncultivated this year due to a lack of water to irrigate crops.

According to the UN unit to combat desertification, Morocco is facing a severe crisis that threatens its agriculture and food security. A six-year drought, exacerbated by climate change, has deeply impacted the country’s cereal farmers, whose fields of wheat, maize, and barley once sustained both human and livestock consumption.

The drought has not only reduced crop yields but has also transformed Morocco’s agricultural landscape, leading to significant economic and social challenges. As Morocco grapples with these difficulties, the government and agricultural sector are employing innovative strategies to combat the water crisis and safeguard the nation’s food supply.

Moroccan agricultural production consists of wheat, oranges, tomatoes, potatoes, olives, and olive oil. They also grow argan seeds for Moroccan oil.

The Impact of Drought on Morocco’s Agriculture

Morocco’s agriculture sector is highly vulnerable to changing climate patterns, especially the delayed and inconsistent rainfall that has plagued the country for years. Cereals, which occupy the majority of Morocco’s farmland, have seen a dramatic decline in both yield and acreage.

Visit a Moroccan farm:

In 2023, Morocco’s wheat harvest is projected to yield only 3.4 million tons, compared to the 6.1 million tons harvested the previous year. This decline has forced many farmers to leave their fields fallow, reducing both productivity and income.

The ongoing drought has also led to a reliance on wheat imports to meet domestic demand. Between January and June 2023, Morocco imported nearly 2.5 million tons of wheat, primarily from France.

However, this solution may not be sustainable, as France itself faces declining harvests due to similar climate challenges. The Food and Agriculture Organization ranked Morocco as the sixth-largest wheat importer in the world in 2023, highlighting the growing dependence on external sources for staple foods.

Recognizing the severity of the drought, the Moroccan government has intensified its efforts to address the country’s water scarcity. One key initiative is the implementation of a national water management strategy, aligned with guidelines set out by King Mohammed VI. This comprehensive strategy aims to mitigate the impact of the drought through water conservation measures and the diversification of water sources.

Seawater desalination has emerged as a cornerstone of Morocco’s water management efforts. Currently, the country operates 12 desalination plants with a total capacity of 179.3 million cubic meters of water per year. Morocco is also building desalination plants with France.

Plans are in place to construct seven additional desalination plants by 2027, which will increase capacity by another 143 million cubic meters. This ambitious plan reflects Morocco’s commitment to addressing its annual water demand, which exceeds 16 billion cubic meters—87% of which is used for agriculture. Yet, over the past five years, available water resources have not surpassed 5 million cubic meters annually, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

Early studies suggest that better water management practices such as water metering can help stop the quick decline of aquifers.

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London born and bred, Asma al-Assad, the first lady to the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, has announced she has leukemia. The announcement was made in Arabic and in English on her Instagram channel. Asma al-Assad was featured in a controversial paid Vogue article and has been regarded as one of the leaders of the Captagon drug trade coming out of Syria.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a rare cancer that affects one’s bone marrow and blood. It’s an aggressive cancer that, left untreated, may be life-threatening. AML typically affects people age 60 and older, but it can affect younger adults and children, according to Yale Medicine.

Here is her announcement on Youtube:

We do not wish ill health on anyone, but let’s take a look at the Assad’s family history.

Bashar al-Assad is labeled as a dictator due to his autocratic style of governance and the repressive measures his regime has employed to maintain power in Syria. Here are some key reasons why he is regarded as such:

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When you think of the Nile, what comes to mind? Egyptian cotton, Baby Moses in a bassinet, waiting among the reeds to be found and brought into the Pharaoh’s palace, a Nile cruise along the riverbanks? An ancient and modern empire?  These things might come to mind if you are sitting on your couch somewhere in the west reading this.

If you are from Ethiopia, Sudan or Egypt your concerns are very different. And they could spell life and death, prosperity or war. And this is a serious time and the world needs to get involved, especially those funding renewable energy projects:

Ethiopia is about to finish the largest hydro-electric dam in Africa and the 7th largest in the world. It’s called the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). We have been writing about the dam for years. But now world leaders are paying attention because the dam is about to be completed and be filled.

The water for the Ethiopian dam comes from the headwaters of the Nile where it is called the Blue Nile River, and Egypt might lose half of its Delta or 50% of arable farms as the dam water fills. 

If you are an Egyptian the Mighty Nile is your lifeforce. It is your life and possibly your demise. If 80 percent of your river will be lost, this will spell out catastrophe for Egyptian life as you know it. Who owns mighty rivers? Can a nation suddenly dam one without consideration of who is downstream? These are issues that Israel, Jordan and Syria have faced for millenial, on the Jordan River, a tiny river to compare, but mighty in its own way. 

Losing the Nile is unthinkable to Egyptians. Their pharaohs were the masters of the Nile and they built empires and modern republics on it.

The Pharaohs worshiped crocodiles and they commanded their people to use the Nile to ship giant granite blocks to build the Great Pyramid of Giza nearby. In 1970, Egypt’s post-independence leader, Gamal Abdel Nasser, completed the Aswan High Dam, which tamed the seasonal flow of the Nile and transformed Egyptian agriculture.

Egypt justified its dominance over the river by citing a colonial-era water treaty and a 1959 agreement with Sudan. But Ethiopia does not recognize them, and when its former leader, Mengistu Haile Mariam, proposed building a series of dams on the Nile back in 1978, he met threats from Egypt.

The Egyptians and the Ethiopians all need the water for life

Without the Nile Egypt will not be Egypt. Food prices will sour. Irrigation will end. The millions living in slums will be cut off from basic needs. War will most certainly erupt. 

The Arab Spring, climate change, and now Ethiopia’s interest in creating a dam for hydro-electric power all spell disaster for Egypt and the western east.  To mitigate war and catastrophe, humanitarian and political, talks are being mediated by the US Treasury and the World Bank yet there is no agreement the operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Ethiopia is energy ambitious, like every nation

Ethiopia itself emblematic of being one of the world’s poorest countries hopes its 510-foot-tall, 5,840-foot-long structure will finally once and for all hold Ethiopia’s dominant position for the source of the Blue Nile, which is also the source water to 80% of Egypt’s water.

It will have cost $4 billion USD to build it (Reuters) and when the dam is full and in operation the GERD will supply over 6,000 megawatts of electricity  and it will become Africa’s largest hydropower dam.

We can learn from China however on how dam’s devastate local communities, kill entire ecosystems, and wipe out major species (see NYT freshwater giants are dying). Worse will happen if it’s a dam that separates nations, already fragile. Already desperate. 

According to some sources, like the US Media Line, the mediated talks that include Donald Trump “have turned into a disaster.” Though the Media Line does not mention which source. 

America has been a long supporter of Cairo and Egypt with massive amounts of USAID, about $1.5 billion USD a year, going to support the nation. Some funneled into dubious agricultural projects like co-funded with Pepsi Co incentives to increase the output of potatoes per farm –- an expectation obviously to help PepsiCo supply more fried junk food. 

Can and should America be a deal maker in African continent and western east disputes?

America tries to broker water and dam deal

Trump thinks so and has met with water resources ministers from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan at the White House. Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, the United States Treasury and the World Bank. All of them released an agreed statement that there is a “joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”

Which basically says nothing. Or forces anyone to hold there word, but some of the agreed upon terms are below:

• The filling of the GERD will be executed in stages and will be undertaken in an adaptive and cooperative manner that takes into consideration the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the potential impact of the filling on downstream reservoirs. (I ask – Who will be doing ecological/hydrological surveys?)
• Filling will take place during the wet season, generally from July to August, and will continue in September subject to certain conditions. (I ask – Who will set these conditions? Who will hold anyone to them as climate change worsens?)
• The initial filling stage of the GERD will provide for the rapid achievement of a level of 595 meters above sea level and the early generation of electricity, while providing appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan in case of severe droughts during this stage. 
• The subsequent stages of filling will be done according to a mechanism to be agreed that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that addresses the filling goals of Ethiopia and provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
• During long term operation, the GERD will operate according to a mechanism that determines release based upon the hydrological conditions of the Blue Nile and the level of the GERD that provides electricity generation and appropriate mitigation measures for Egypt and Sudan during prolonged periods of dry years, drought and prolonged drought.
• An effective coordination mechanism and provisions for the settlement of disputes will be established.

Losses filled by the World Bank?

The Egyptian newspaper Mada Masr reported the US administration was pressuring Egypt to accept Ethiopia’s proposals in return for compensation from the World Bank for water shortages.

The Blue Nile is a seasonal river and it fills up when the rain starts in Ethiopia around June until the end of November. It travels to the Aswan dam and meets the Nile River, where it dissipates to the Nile Delta. See image below.

Egypt currently bases its share of the river’s waters on a 1959 deal between Sudan and Egypt that gave it 55.5 billion cubic meters water annually, and Sudan 18.5 bcm. Other countries were not given allocations at that time. So basically were not part of the deal. For instance, Ethiopia was not party to the agreement and does not recognize it. If you read one of the past article we wrote and scroll down through to the comments you will see how Egyptians and Ethiopians are disagreeing about this agreement. 

Meanwhile, concerned experts in Egypt expect a minimum amount of water to be allocated to Egypt. The average flow before the dam was about 50 billion cubic meters (source) and Egyptian sources expect the continuation of 40 billion cubic meters annually. 

No one has agreed yet on how such promises will be kept. Deals made between unstable countries to start with? Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia? 

Egypt started building the dam in 2011, at an opportune time – a moment to sneak in dam planning – when Egypt was dealing with its own major problems, the ousting of President Hosni Mubarak, and the Arab Spring. 

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD or TaIHiGe; Amharic: ታላቁ የኢትዮጵያ ሕዳሴ ግድብ), formerly known as the Millennium Dam and sometimes referred to as Hidase Dam is a gravity dam on the Blue Nile River in Ethiopia that has been under construction since 2011. It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km (9 miles) east of the border with Sudan.

At 6.45 gigawatts, the dam will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa when completed, as well as the seventh largest in the world. As of October 2019, the work stood at approximately 70% completion. Once completed, the reservoir could take anywhere between 5 and 15 years to fill with water, depending on hydrologic conditions during the filling period and agreements reached between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt.

Currently 75% of Ethiopians do not have electricity, and the government needs the dam to help the people prosper. Consider countries like Canada that create hydro-electric power as a way of life. Canada is the world’s second producer of hydro-electric power after China. I am a Canadian. We don’t refer to electricity as electricity, we call it hydro.

Ethiopia wants power and prosperity too. And Ethiopia has warned that millions are ready to go to war over it. 

Egypt could lose 50% of its agriculture land

How can water flow be gauged. When is drought, a drought? When should the dam be filled and then stored? Over what time? How does this work with Sudanese dams? No one has the answers yet. And I fear that in 30 years from now we will see what kind of big mistakes we made for not helping Ethiopia go solar. 

The Geological Society of America reported that Egypt would lose 25 percent of its yearly water if the dam’s reservoir was filled within 7 years.  Egyptians don’t believe that the fill time can be drawn out this long. 

Mahmoud Farouk, program coordinator for civil society partnerships at the Project on Middle East Democracy in Washington said in this report on the Media Line: Water shortages would pose “a great danger to the Egyptian Delta.. 17% of Egypt’s agricultural land could be destroyed if Ethiopia fills the reservoir in six years, and that figure rises to 51% if they fill it within three years.”

“My main fear is that Ethiopia might continue to ignore these concerns. Water is a matter of life or death to Egyptians – putting Egypt in the corner isn’t the right policy at all,” said Farouk.

More on the Nile and Egypt:

American Elections Are Bad for the Nile Delta

In The Face of Nilelessness, Egyptians Protest Water Shortages

Nile Water Kills 17,000 Children Each Year

Post Revolution Egypt Wants Windfarms

Top image via CNN.

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Tunisia was the first Arab country to talk about environment policy. Green Prophet attends a local conference on water and pollution and stunningly sees how there is no framework for Tunisia to make environmental change and progress. Read our report.

The following article was meant to review topics covered at the International Symposium on Emerging Pollutants in Irrigation Waters which, for the first time in Tunisia, brought together scientific communities around the Mediterranean Sea Basin and the Arab countries to discuss research findings and explore further opportunities of collaboration on mitigating practices in emerging pollutants in irrigation water.

With water scarcity becoming an impending issue for the MENA  region and the post revolution effects of reduced controls on water quality (as well as trash), topics related to reusing and recycling water while ensuring water quality are key for this region.

But as I sat around the table with various Tunisian conference participants, ranging from researchers and professors specializing in chemical pollution to environmental specialists at various municipalities, questions regarding the content of the symposium could not help but be shirked and answers would insistently diverge into politics.

If I cannot keep my interviewees to the topic, I thought, there must be a reason. The reason is that Tunisia is far from realistically being able to implement advanced solutions to its environmental issues before reconstructing its basic environmental codes of conduct, which have degraded to pre-1990’s levels.

When asking Borhane Mahjoub, professor at the Institute of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sousse, and one of the organizers at the symposium, which of the discussed technologies could be seen as being used in Tunisia to purify irrigation water he refused to give me an answer, “We are far from realistically being able to apply any of the methods and research discussed at the conference.”

Following such a point blank answer, a succession of topics spilled out onto the table and it was clear that if the current Tunisian government does not reinstate environmental governance soon, the next generations of Tunisians will suffer massively – not only in terms of health but wealth too, polluted seas, rivers and soils are certainly not an attractive fate for its Tourism industry.

To briefly summarize the long and convoluted discussion that followed; The Tunisian environmental legislation, one of the best in the Middle East North Africa region in the 1990’s, has not been renewed ever since.

Furthermore, environmental regulation has been largely dropped from its current political agenda and a comprehensive environmental code is largely nonexistent. To exemplify the regression of the importance of environmental governance: In 1991 Tunisia was the first Arab state to create a Ministry of Environment, after the 2011 Jasmine revolution, the Ministry of the Environment was reinstated as a subgroup of the Ministry of Infrastructure (not even Agriculture!).

Tunisia is characterized by a large quantity of small domestic industries which dot the country and a few large international industries. Domestic industries are suffering from a post-revolution dire economy and without a government, a watchdog, which has an interest in regulating the environment, industries will not think twice from reducing its short term costs by polluting waterways and soils.

The southern region of Tunisia has been experiencing drastic environmental impacts particularly; pollution from its textile industry and water scarcity from its phosphate mining in the Gafsa region.

As I was pointed out, Tunisia is not only suffering from a post revolution but also from a current political agenda which is focused on a single topic: religion.

All other issues ranging from education, health, environment and public services are largely being left astray. So, on the one hand, the political will on implementing basic environmental policies on issues such as waste management, renewable energy, water treatment and recycling are missing in post-revolution Tunisia.

On the other hand, I am told there is a cultural component: “environmental factors are still not of primary concern for the majority of Tunisian citizens too,” this is not because environmental health is a luxury and so citizens do not have the time and money for this, but because the idea of “eco-citizenship” is missing.

Environmental sensibilisation has barely been part of any of the previous and current governments’ strategies and so current generations, who have had to depend less directly than previous generations on its environment, have lost touch with the importance of an environmental wealth.

Environmental sensibilization, through education, and starting from kindergarden, is an impending public policy. Likewise, although Tunisia has a strong civil society, like other MENA countries, it still lacks a strong eco-civil society and so the environment is likely to suffer deeply.

The moral of the story is quite simple. How can we speak about research and advanced technologies in Tunisia if there is limited political will and civil engagement in the environmental sector? To get back on track, Tunisia needs to update its environmental legislation, design and implement a comprehensive environmental code and invest in eco-citizenship.

Image of boat in salt desert from Shutterstock

The post Tunisia’s environmental progress slides back 25 years appeared first on Green Prophet.

Indeed, as a result of climate change and global warming the Middle East has been facing five major environmental security challenges: water security, food security, energy security, desertification, and land degradation.

These issues have been further aggravated by other socio-economic processes, which characterize the Middle East and include: the huge population growth, the rapid urbanization process and the development of mega-cities on the expense of rural areas.

The urban infrastructures, such as sewage and waste disposal, which have been inadequate anyway and are in dire need for modernization, could not stand the ever-growing human pressure and in a few cities, some of them have totally collapsed.

Moreover, the natural resources, such as water and food, which were just sufficient for the cities’ residents, have been stressed to the limit due to the huge population density within the cities. In addition, green spaces within the cities have given place to gray buildings which have been built whenever possible in order to supply the lodging needs of the incessant stream of new immigrants and local citizens.

While the natural resources in the urban areas have been stressed to the limit, the situation in the rural areas has not been much better. The people in the rural areas have been suffering from desertification, the expansion of desert areas, and, as a result, from the degradation of the land and the lack of natural resources to sustain themselves, which has forced them to move to the urban areas in search of a better future. In addition, due to the rapid urbanization process and the influx of more and more people to the urban areas, the rural areas have been diminishing in a very rapid pace.

Most Middle Eastern regimes have not been able to deal with the situation. That is why, in recent years, environmental issues have come to the fore in the region. Whereas until recent years environmental issues were often viewed as secondary in the political agenda, now they have become central within political debates concerning representation, accountability and social justice.

The people have resented the inability of the governments in the region to deal with their urgent needs. Even more so, they have resented the fact that the governments have ignored them and their rights to use and enjoy access to basic natural resources as well as to health and other essential services and goods.

This feeling of resentment felt by many people has just added fuel to an ongoing fire, which was initially fed by other resentments, such as political and ethnic discrimination, socio-economical hardships, political oppression, lack of basic freedoms (freedom of speech), and so on.

Thus, in recent years, the region has witnessed an ever-increased environmental activism and mass environmental protest movements whose aims have been to alter the policies of the governments so that they will take more care of the people’s needs as well as to protect the environment and to ensure that the people will enjoy access to basic natural resources, health and other services.

Indeed, protests about environmental issues (like Gezi Park in Istanbul) are also political and social claims about rights, access, livelihoods, and power, as can be seen very clearly in the current protest taking place in Turkey these days as well as in protests elsewhere. Mass environmental protest movements in the local and national level have been organized all over the region, from Morocco and Mauritania to Iran and from Turkey to Somalia.

Not all mass environmental protest movements have proven themselves to be successful. Its success has often depended on the ability of its organizers to mobilize the media, some of the politicians, and the civil society. When one or more of these players has not been present, it has usually meant failure to achieve the goals.

It should be mentioned that these environmental protest movements have served not only as a proof to the rise of environmental activism in the Middle East but also as a proof for the rise of civil society within the region.

To sum up, especially following the revolutionary wave of demonstrations, protests, riots and civil war in the Middle East, nicknamed the Arab Spring, which was originated and triggered, at least partly, by environmental issues, the environmental mass protest movements throughout the Middle East, including the current one in Turkey, should be taken very seriously. For the first time in the history of the Middle East, the people feel powerful and feel that they have the power to influence policies and to topple long-ruling dictators. They want that the governments in the region will hear them and take note of their demands and needs. In case the governments will not do so, the people have the power to replace or topple the current regimes.

Thus, for example, in the case of Turkey and Gezi Park at Taksim Square, even if the current mass environmental protest movement does not achieve its aims in the short run, it might still have the power to ignite a chain of reactions which will cause the downfall of Erdogan’s government in the long run.

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While it’s rare to find sharks in the Mediterranean Sea (they are almost extinct), they are not so uncommon in the Red Sea. Its warm waters and ample food source bait sharks who sometimes get personal with bathers and divers. In 2010, a Red Sea white tip shark ate an elderly tourist and just this weekend, a Red Sea shark visited an Eilat, Israel beach, getting within feet of swimmers. There was no mention in media reports if it was a gentle whale shark or a white tip, but in any case no damage was done.

While frightening, most sharks do not attack people. Usually it’s the other way around in Egypt, where diving conservationists are fighting to stop illegal shark hunting. Arab Spring uprisings may have been liberating for the people, in some sense, but these protests and the results have been a failure for sharks. While each shark in the wild fetches about $200,000 a year for the tourism industry (based on its value in creating ecosystem diversity), if sold on the black market for meat, it gets a a quick $150 to $200 bucks.

According to the UPI, Egypt authorities are going to start a probe on illegal shark hunting in Sinai. With all that authority is worth in Sinai in preventing kidnappings, and violence, we doubt to see any results soon.

The marine conservation group Hurghada Environmental Protection and Conservation Association in Sinai (one of its researchers is a Green Prophet hero for 2012!), Egypt is working to fight against shark hunters who advertise hunting expeditions for tourists, and who also sell their catch on tourist beaches for dinner.

“HEPCA and the Red Sea community are outraged at the disturbing news coming out of the Suez Governorate; the recurring slaughter of the gentle and endangered whale shark,” a release from the organization said.

It’s likely that the rare shark sighting in Israel at the top of the Red Sea where it meets Sinai, Israel and Jordan, was forced to come there to escape hunting pressures.

Arab Spring violence in Lebanon and Syria, and increased hunting, I was told by Nicole Wexler, an authority at the Jerusalem Biblical Zoo, has led to an unprecedented number of wolves seeking refuge in Israel from Syria and Lebanon. Most people don’t distinguish them from dogs, which is a good thing for humans with killer instincts.

Woman with whale shark from Shutterstock

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The 19-month conflict in Syria goes from bad to worse – and there are environmental impacts for the region too

“The situation is bad and getting worse,” U.N.-Arab League peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said today, lamenting the collapse of the truce he helped broker over the Eid al-Adha holiday. A car bomb which exploded near a Damascus mosque shattered the fragile ceasefire which had done little to stem violence across the country. And so, the 19-month conflict rages on with costs to the Syrian people and the region. In a previous post, I covered how poor water policies may have aggravated the conflict in Syria but Jordan – which has taken in over 200,000 Syrians- is now struggling with its own water supplies for refugees.

Syrians have been fleeing the country in search of safety for months now and Jordan has opened its borders to over 200,000 refugees. However, Jordan has been struggling to assist the displaced due to its fragile desert climate. In the Za’atri refugee camp which is home to 36,000 refugee a sandstorm blew down the tents and there have been several protests by refugees at the harsh conditions in the camps. Andrew Harper, who is UNHCR’s country representative and humanitarian coordinator in Jordan, spoke with VOA’s David Arnold about challenges and complexities of the aid effort in Jordan.

“One of the challenges we do have in the north of Jordan, one of the biggest problems, is that we are working in the desert and we’re trying to get water to tens of thousands of people every day,” he explained. “The other issue is also getting rid of the waste, the sewage, the solid waste. And this puts a messy environmental burden on the Jordanian environment up there and so, what we have to look at, is that we do not compromise Jordan’s future by aggravating the pollution potential, disruption of the Jordanian aquifers because they have been hosting refugees.”

Jordan has a long history of providing for refugees seeking safety from conflict including Plaestinians, Lebanese, Iraqis and more recently Libyans and Syrians. But Jordan lacks natural resources and the UNCHR have been appealing to the International community to provide the country with two things they are lacking: money and water.

For more on the conflict in Syria see:

How Unsutainable Water Policies Crippled the Assad Regime

Arab Spring Countries Face Increase Risk of Food Price Shocks in 2013

Syrian Desert People in Need of Sustainable Tents

:: Photo of Syrian refugee via FreedomHouse/flickr.

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Case Study: A stable security state or a nation eager for reform? We look at Jordan and the strengths and weaknesses of its civil society

Whilst Jordan may not have seen the flurry of protests that lots of other Arab countries witnessed during the Arab Spring, that doesn’t mean Jordanians are not desperate for reform. In fact, they are and to a certain extent the government has been eager to show they are happy to make changes. In the last two years alone there have been amendments to over 42 articles of the Jordanian Constitution. But, for many, these reforms aren’t having a real impact and there are growing concerns that the authorities are becoming more draconian.

First, there were efforts to censor the internet and last month, protestors gathered to demand the release of activists charged with opposing the regime and slandering the royal family. It seems that becoming a campaigner and a genuine member of Jordan’s civil society just got a little more difficult.

“Although Jordan is a security state – if a less extreme, less openly repressive version of one than Egypt was – it continues to be held up as an example of one of the more progressive and democratic Arab states. Jordan’s path to reform has been a carefully managed top-down process which has all the trappings of democracy while lacking substance. Despite its failure to take meaningful steps towards democracy, donors continue to laud Jordan as a democratizer.” 

That was the damning conclusion that researchers Ana Echagüe and Hélène Michou at the Foundation for the Future came to in a report released in May 2011 exploring Jordan’s civil society.

Over a year on has anything changed for the better? It’s hard to tell. A recent report launched by the same organisation points out the real challenges facing civil society organisations in the country. Firstly, donors tend to fund projects more than the infrastructure of the organization, leaving the organisations structurally weak and with sustainability issues. Secondly, there are legislative and government obstacles to the free execution of civil society activities in Jordan.

For example, the Foundation for the Future explains in a press release that foreign funding is subject to government approval and societies must “not intend to achieve any ‘political’ gains covered by the Political Parties Law in the course of their work”, though the term ‘political’ is undefined.

Why is all this relevant? Well, I have been thinking a lot about the environmental movement in the region and the importance of a strong civil society for it to flourish. If people are able to organise freely, feel that their voice matters and are unified then they are likely to take action on issues that concern them. If not, they will wait for the government to not only realise the severity of the problem but also come up with a solution. This is particularly worrying if the issue is climate change.

Climate change is not a problem that can be solved by governments and authorities – it’s far too wide reaching for that. It needs local solutions and local actions to go hand in hand with government support and policy. The problem can’t wait for governments to wake up and smell the carbon-dioxide coffee. So, if we are serious about building up an environmental movement in the Middle East, then we need to be serious about building up a strong and independent civil society first.

For more on Jordan see: 

Websites Go Black to Protest Internet Censorship in Jordan

King Abdullah: Israel is Disrupting Jordan’s Nuclear Ambitions

Recycling Yourself When Green Projects Go Bust

Image of Jordanian forced holding flowers distributed by protesters calling for release of political prisoners in Amman last month. Muhammad Hamed/Reuters.

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According to the latest findings by global risk-analyser Maplecroft, Arab Spring countries are at greater risk of rising food prices in the coming year

It’s no secret that the high price of basic food staples were a contributing factor to the revolts which began in Tunisia and Egypt and sparked the ‘Arab Spring’. The protesters took to the streets waving bread and asking for equality and an end to corruption. Today, however, it seems little has changed since those protests in terms of the cost of food. According to the latest food price forecasts for 2013 by global risk-analyser Maplecroft, food prices are actually likely to rise again in the region. What’s more: countries involved in the protests around the Arab world are particularly at risk of rising food price shocks.

“The drivers of the ‘Arab Awakening’ were varied and complex and included long standing public anger at high levels of governmental corruption and oppressive tactics against populations and political opposition,” states Maplecroft CEO Alyson Warhurst. “When these factors combine with food insecurity, sparked by rising global prices, it can create an environment for social unrest and regime change.”

Back in 2007/8, a global food crisis resulted in several food riots across the region including places such as Yemen and Egypt. This year, the tenuous nature of global food security was back on the agenda due to the USA’s worst drought in 50 years and a 10% drop in production across countries from the former Soviet Union. These low crop yields have lead to to a global food price rise of 6% in July 2012. A report by Rabobank, a financial specialist in agro-commodities, estimates that price of food staples could rise by as much as 15% by June 2013, resulting in record high food prices.

“Food price forecasts for 2013 provide a worrying picture,” states Maplecroft’s Head of Maps and Indices Helen Hodge. “Although a food crisis has not emerged yet, there is potential for food related upheaval across the most vulnerable regions, including sub-Saharan Africa.” In the Middle East and North Africa region, the countries at greatest risk include Yemen, Syria and Libya (who along with Iraq are classified as ‘high risk’). Those defined as at ‘medium risk’ of food price hikes include Egypt and Tunisia.

Maplecroft explains that the region remains at elevated risk of food price fluctuations due to its heavy reliance on US and Russians crops. Whilst they are so dependent on cereal imports they wil remain vulnerable to market prices.

The Food Security Risk Index has been developed for governments, NGOs and business to help identify those countries which may be susceptible to famine and societal unrest stemming from food price fluctuations. Maplecroft reaches its results by evaluating the availability, access and stability of food supplies in 197 countries, as well as the nutritional and health status of populations, the organization states.

For more on food prices across MENA see:

Rising Food Prices Behind Riots in Algeria and Tunisia

Arab Protests Affect World Food Prices

How Climate Change Contributed to the Syrian Uprising

Image Arab girls harvesting in Bethlehem via Ryan Rodrick Beiler / Shutterstock.com

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We speak to Egyptian campaigner Sarah Rifaat about the environmental movement and why bureaucracy and corruption are still the biggest barriers to change in Egypt 

Sarah Rifaat, like many people in Egypt, suffered from childhood asthma caused by the high levels of pollution in her city. What Sarah did differently when she grew up however, is refuse to accept this as the norm. Sarah’s asthma was her first lesson in the importance of a healthy and sustainable lifestyle which led her down the path of environmental campaigning. Today, she works with 350.org as the Arab world co-ordinator and is also part of a new Arab Youth Climate Movement. I caught up with Sarah to find out more about her work and what she would change if she was Egyptian president for a day.

Tell us a little about yourself and how you got involved in the climate change movement?

I’ve always had a passion for environmental conservation ever since I was a young girl. I can attribute that to specific moments in my life, such as the time when my grandfather taught me to name flowers in his garden, or when I used to watch Captain Planet. All these moments made me feel that I had a responsibility towards the world around me.

In college I studied mass communication and wanted to be a graphic designer, but I took a course on Environmental Issues and used my design skills for environmental awareness initiatives. After I graduated I volunteered to facilitate workshops for children at the World Environment Day celebration which is held in Cairo every year. I tried to lead a more environmentally conscious existence, but an activist I was not, climate or otherwise. That all changed in 2009 when I got an email inviting me to go to a 3-week climate advocacy workshop organized by 350.org and IndyACT in Turkey.

I and 20 other young Arabs went on a sponsored trip to Turkey to learn about climate change and also about using the tools of art and media for climate advocacy. We were there with participants from 39 other countries to learn about how to organize for the first 350 global day of action on October 24th. I’ve been part of the movement ever since as a volunteer field organizer till 2011, when I assumed the role of the 350 Arab world coordinator.

So you’ve been involved in the 350.org  campaign for a couple of years now. Can you tell us about what you feel the campaign has achieved in Egypt so far?

I feel that the campaign has managed to involve more Egyptian youth in climate activism and organizing, as well as link climate change to local issues such as sustainable transportation. The campaign has also managed to encourage local collaboration between different groups and NGOs.

What changes have you noticed in the environmental movement in Egypt over the last 5 to 10 years?

The environmental movement has become more developed and more widespread than ever before – especially among youth. There’s a lot more recognition now of the link between environmental issues and social justice issues, which has led many groups that haven’t been involved in environmental activism to join forces with environmentalists.

I understand you were also part of a recent campaign to setup a Arab Youth Climate Movement. How did the meeting go and what can we expect next?

The workshop was about uniting youth climate activists from around the Arab World, with the aim of launching a strong regional youth network on climate. The activists came from 14 different Arab countries and got a chance to jointly discuss global and regional climate politics and acquire organizing skills, such as activists story-sharing, action planning and campaigning. In addition we also managed to bond as a team and formulate a common vision for the regional network. The AYCM is now focused on organizing the first Arab Day on Climate Action on November 3rd and is gearing up for participation at the Conference of Youth and COP18 in Qatar later this year.

What do you think are the unique barriers that Egypt faces in terms of tackling its environmental issues?

Corruption, outdated policies, vested interests and extremely bureaucratic governmental institutions are the biggest barriers for many environmentalist. There are those who might argue that lack of mass awareness on some issues is a barrier, and while that is true in some cases, the events of last year have proved that you only need a dedicated few to bring about massive change. However, in order for us to create lasting change, we need to transform the systems and institutions that have long kept the status quo.

What one thing would you change if you were leader of Egypt for the day?

I would create more open and intuitive channels of communication between government and civil society and try to launch some process by which governmental planning is truly inclusive, transparent and decentralized.

:: Images courtesy of Sarah Rifaat and 350.org

For more on Egypt’s environmental movement see: 

Frack Off Shell! Egyptians Launch Anti-Fracking Campaign

Recycle Art Workshops @Darb 1718 this October

Sun, Soak and Dive Holidays in Sinai’s Sharm El Sheikh

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