As tensions rise in one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, the ripple effects go far beyond oil—touching food systems, climate pressures, and regional stability

By Dr. Osama Moh’d Gazal, Environmental and Climate Change Advisor, Jordan

The Arabs have controlled the region (The Gulf of the black gold oil), for a longer period, especially considering the spread of Islam and modern Arab states’ establishment. Persians, then known as the Sassanids, controlled it for about 1000 years before the Arab conquest. The term “Persian Gulf” was commonly used historically, while “Arabian Gulf” is often used by Arab states. The name reflects the region’s complex history and competing claims. Returning to the Historical overview of the strait we can find that Persians were the first major power to control the Gulf (definitely with the Strait of Hormuz), but Arabs have had a longer stretch of influence overall.

Historically, the name “Persian Gulf” stuck in Western maps, but Arab states prefer “Arabian Gulf” or “Gulf”. The modern geopolitics of the Gulf involves complex regional dynamics, with Arab states like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar playing key roles. Iran’s influence and tensions with Arab states, especially over issues like nuclear deals and regional power struggles, are significant factors. However, in the last 20 years, after the Iraqi regime of Saddam was destroyed, the conflict between Arab and Iran escalated into three main dimensions (Iran-Arab tensions: Proxy conflicts in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, Competition for resources and influence, lastly, and the most important, the Security pacts where US and European alliances with Gulf states). The Gulf has been a contested region, with various empires vying for control.

Amid the repercussions of war, the struggle for control, the imposition of influence, and the assertion of dominance by the strongest power in the region, the most potent leverage has emerged in the hands of the Persians, for now, the Hormuz. Whether this leverage remains in their grasp or is lost will depend on the unfolding course of the conflict. The Persian/Arabian Gulf has been strategically significant since ancient times, though it has experienced prolonged periods of Arab control, particularly following the collapse of the Persian Empire during the era of Caliph Omar ibn al-Khattab. With the decline of the Arab Caliphate and the rise of the Ottoman Empire, Persian influence over the region was reasserted.

Today, we are witnessing a renewed struggle for dominance and control over one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz represents a formidable asset for the Persians, who seek to leverage it to exert pressure on the global stage, particularly by influencing oil prices.

As one of the eight most strategically significant straits worldwide, it facilitates the transit of approximately 90% of globally traded petroleum fuels. More specifically, it ranks as the second most vital maritime passage, governing over 26% of the world’s seaborne petroleum trade. Any sustained disruption or restriction of maritime movement through this strait would not only jeopardize oil and natural gas supplies. Still, it would also have profound implications for food security, both regionally and globally.

From the outset, international warnings have emphasized the necessity of maintaining the unimpeded functionality of this critical waterway through diplomatic engagement and commitment to peaceful conflict resolution. The focus has been on upholding humanitarian considerations and ensuring that the strait continues to serve its vital role in global trade. However, amid escalating military tensions and intensifying geopolitical rivalries, diplomatic channels and multilateral agreements have collapsed, and the security of international maritime routes has been severely compromised. The prevailing dynamic is now dictated by the logic of military force.

We must broaden our assessment of the potential consequences beyond the prevailing discourse centered on oil. While economists and military analysts have naturally concentrated on the hydrocarbon sector given its strategic importance and the immediate disruptions to energy markets caused by deteriorating security in the Strait of Hormuz, the repercussions extend far beyond petroleum. Despite the overwhelming military superiority of the primary adversary of the Persians, an ally of Arab states in this confrontation, the strait remains a highly advantageous asset for the Persians in this struggle. Even if the conflict remains confined to sporadic threats and patrols by small naval vessels, the strategic value of this chokepoint endures. However, the current reality involves more than posturing; it includes the mining of waters and tangible measures to maintain control over this historically contested passage.

Now we can’t understand issues related to the Oil-Food Security Nexus without returning to the recent Oil Price Shocks and Food Security in the region, recognizing that these are food-import-dependent nations. The 1991 Gulf War led to a sharp increase in oil prices, which in turn raised transportation and production costs for food commodities. This resulted in higher food prices, disproportionately affecting low-income households. Countries in the Arabian Gulf region, already reliant on food imports, faced exacerbated food insecurity due to increased costs and disrupted supply chains. The current crisis calls for global food price volatility. The war-induced oil price spike contributed to global food price instability, emphasizing the vulnerability of food systems to energy market shocks.

Current oil prices already offer a glimpse into the potential impact of a full-scale closure of the strait. Yet, the threat to global food security is equally dire and will become increasingly evident over time, affecting both the region and the world at large.

Furthermore, the environmental toll is mounting, with elevated greenhouse gas emissions resulting from military operations, the destruction of vast fuel storage facilities, and the potential ignition of oil wells should the conflict escalate. (The consequences will not be confined to the Gulf states and Iraq, affecting tens of millions of people, but will reverberate across the interconnected global system. Food security is at risk, agricultural productivity will decline, and production costs will surge. Farmers will face increased operational expenses and greater difficulties in exporting goods, all of which will contribute to rising prices and exacerbate food insecurity. This raises a critical question: Are the countries in the region prepared to withstand these far-reaching and debilitating indirect consequences should the conflict persist? This burden will weigh most heavily on nations with fragile economies and vulnerable food systems.

Natural disasters caused by climate change were historically several times more devastating than those caused by other factors, but the impact of these disasters has now become more balanced as a result of humanity’ ability to adapt to climate change and lessen loss of life. However, the impact of these calamities on food security remains significant due to the lack of sustainable human agricultural systems. Military conflicts and wars related to the control and expansion of influence, such as those currently taking place in the Middle Eastern Gulf region, known as the Arabian or Persian Gulf today, are among the most significant human-related activities contributing to climate change, given their link to emissions that exacerbate this phenomenon.

Despite my scientific perspective and in-depth understanding of climate change, which is regarded as a natural periodic phenomenon on Earth that existed before humans and their activities, human-caused pollution has piqued the interest of numerous experts. They investigated the potential influence of higher concentrations of specific human-caused emissions on climate change using mathematical and statistical models. And because many activists in this field are not specialists but merely amateurs in the world of climate change, participating in workshops, traveling, and gaining fame, the idea of real climate change has shifted to be associated only with the gas emissions resulting from direct human activities, such as energy production from fossil fuels, or indirect activities, such as livestock and poultry farming, among other activities that many accuse of causing climate change.

Climate change is a reality, despite mistakes in mathematical and statistical models that underpin all scenario forecasts based on carbon dioxide levels, despite studies showing that carbon dioxide concentrations were far higher during ice ages. These errors result from assigning scientific topics to unqualified individuals who are only interested in money and fame and do not delve into understanding the meanings of the phenomenon of climate change in a scientifically precise manner, rather than going beyond logic and science in terms of Earth’s climate history. Although their violations of logic have become sophisticated and presented through statistical and mathematical models that astonish people and even impress those managing these models into believing results that are built on non-scientific foundations, without considering a scientific historical study of Earth’s climate and the real factors influencing this climate, and excluding factors related to the primary energy source for the planets of the solar system and the changes occurring in this system.

In my opinion, any model intended to imitate reality and predict the future is a failure if it does not account for sun-related phenomena and their impact on Earth’s climate. However, as scientists, we must acknowledge that climate change is a reality that we face, and we must adapt as humans to the dangers of climate change, particularly during periods of drought and rainfall scarcity, as well as seasonal overlap and irregular rainfall distribution in comparison to what we and the Earth’s biosphere are accustomed to. And let us not forget the risk that has gone unnoticed due to the focus on global warming and the greenhouse effect, which is associated with a fall in temperature as well as a reduction in carbon dioxide levels, resulting in reduced agricultural production and affecting food security.

Interestingly, this more genuine hazard, from which we are now clearly experiencing, demonstrates that death rates from severe cold waves greatly outnumber those from heat waves. Many specialized scientists have written on the subject, and their studies have demonstrated that the future will be worse, especially as the current solar cycle brings us into a period of low solar activity, increasing the risk of the Earth entering a little ice age.

Our readiness for food security concerns is inadequate and has not been thoroughly investigated, as we continue to rely on investment strategies in four key crops: wheat, rice, corn, and soy, to assure more efficient production, but with less diversification and greater fragility. Our agricultural policies have utterly overlooked the value of crop diversity in ensuring a more resilient and sustainable food system in the face of climate change and the hazards of disrupted supply chains, as is currently occurring because of the Strait of Hormuz issue.

With great thankfulness, the focus and debate were on human activities that produce gas emissions that are thought to exacerbate or accelerate climate change on Earth. However, there has been only timid discussion of the impact of wars in this equation, as they are regarded as one of the most prominent and dangerous reasons, not only for the direct suffering of peoples involved in conflicts or forced to participate in bitter wars between great powers seeking control and extending influence, but also for the indirect effects, which are regarded as the most difficult and dangerous in the long run.

Conflicts, the desire for control, and the expansion of influence, away from the meanings of humanity and the spirit of sharing in the Earth’s resources, and prioritizing the principles of diplomacy and agreements that guarantee everyone’s rights, lead to an increased focus on heavy military industries and the pollution and gas emissions they produce, which are accused by mathematical and statistical model studies of causing climate change, global warming, and extreme events related to heat waves or extreme cold periods or heavy rain and hard drought periods.

The Gulf War and subsequent conflicts underscore the intricate relationship between oil prices and food security. Policymakers must consider the food security implications of oil price volatility when addressing regional stability and global food systems. Representing Jordan, our recommendations include:

1. Diversify energy sources to reduce dependence on oil.

2. Enhance regional food production and trade cooperation.

3. Implement policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on vulnerable populations.

4. To address future challenges following the escalation of global food insecurity risks as a result of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, it is critical to first defuse the crisis and develop plans to prevent vital waterways for global food and energy supply chains from becoming threats and tools in the hands of regimes that disregard international law and respect for the integrity of global trade, exploiting such situations to exert pressure and control. Perhaps the solution is to put these critical waterways under international supervision.

5. Furthermore, it is critical to expand efforts to urge countries to strengthen their food security strategy and prepare for emergencies, whether natural disasters caused by climate change, such as droughts, or by conflict.

The Persians are known for wisdom, civilization, legacy, and a worldview with deep roots in administration and the capacity to govern and expand their power. But the problem with the Persians is not with the people who carry on this great heritage, which I personally respect and admire; rather, the problem is with the system that uses religious beliefs to control and be hostile to others, not with the ancient Persian civilization. Despite America’s vast dominance, there have been several studies and projections, but has Iran opted to commit suicide? And will it take positive steps for the benefit of its people and the region, as Japanese Emperor Hirohito did after World War II, adopting a peace, development, and renunciation of foreign interventions and the nuclear issue to save the country (similar to Japan’s renaissance), because continuing on the path of confrontation is very costly and will lead to Iran’s destruction and return to the Stone Age.

The Middle East, particularly Jordan, faces significant food security challenges exacerbated by regional conflicts, economic vulnerabilities, and climate-related stressors. Key factors complicating food security in Jordan include:

1. Trade Disruptions: Jordan’s reliance on imports for staple foods (e.g., wheat, sugar) makes it vulnerable to trade disruptions in neighboring countries, especially given the current regional instability.

2. Economic Pressures: High unemployment, inflation, and a substantial public debt burden strain household purchasing power, limiting access to food.

3. Water Scarcity: Jordan’s severe water scarcity impacts agricultural production, increasing dependence on imports and vulnerability to global price shocks.

4. Refugee Crisis: Hosting a large refugee population (e.g., Syrians) strains food systems and increases demand for limited resources.

5. Climate Change: Decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures threaten agricultural productivity, further straining food availability.

6. Global Price Volatility: Jordan’s import-dependent food system is exposed to international price fluctuations, particularly for staples like wheat and oil.

Jordan’s food security is intricately linked to regional stability, global market trends, and climate resilience. Addressing these challenges requires, enhancing regional trade cooperation, investing in water-efficient agriculture, implementing social protection programs for vulnerable populations, diversifying energy sources to reduce import bills. We pray for a peaceful resolution to this conflict and an end to power struggles that come at the expense of peaceful nations.

May God grant the peoples of this region the strength to overcome these tribulations and crises, and to transcend the sectarian divisions and animosities that have plagued them for decades. We also pray for the protection of our leadership, our people, and our nation, Jordan, as an oasis of security, peace, love, and coexistence in a region that has long endured more than its share of global conflicts.

Editor’s note: Green Prophet, founded by Karin Kloosterman, has been a leading voice on ecological issues in the Middle East for 20 years, while following Hormuz, Iran, water, war, freight, food security and climate resilience across the region. For related reading:

A Fact-Based Reflection on Sustainability and Tourism in Hormuz

The Aga Khan is greenwashing their awards

Design a Bridge for the Strait of Hormuz

Electric and hydrogen long-haul trucks are finally leaving the prototype era

The future of trucking and freight is electric and hydrogen

Tesla Semi, electric road trains and the safer freight future

From “Water Terrorist” to Global Laureate: Iran’s Kaveh Madani Wins the Nobel of Water

Renewables hit 5149 GW in 2025 as the world edges away from oil shocks and fossil-Iran’s water mafia and thirst for war leaves the country on brink of being dry.

The post Hormuz 2026 Conflict Poses an Energy and Food Security Dilemma in a Warming World appeared first on Green Prophet.

My mother smoked two packs a day while pregnant with me in Canada in the 1970s. It was normal then. Doctors didn’t panic, they smoked beside their patients and left ashtrays in the waiting room. My parents smoked in the car, windows closed, despite my protest. Entire generations inhaled smoke before they could walk.

Today, Britain is attempting something that would have seemed unthinkable back then. Lawmakers have passed legislation designed to create a “smoke-free generation,” meaning that people who are currently children will never legally be able to purchase tobacco if the policy remains in place. They have started by promoting that sales of tobacco will be banned to anyone born after 2008.

The law works by raising the legal age for buying tobacco by one year every year. This means that those who are under the legal age today will not grow into eligibility later. The policy has passed through Parliament and is moving through the final stages required to become law. These laws could explain why tobacco companies have started investing in cannabis instead.

The aim is to gradually phase out smoking in the UK, where tobacco use still causes tens of thousands of deaths annually.

The scope of the law includes all tobacco products, including cigarettes, cigars, and loose tobacco. Vaping is not banned under the same framework, but it is being increasingly regulated, with separate measures tightening controls on marketing, flavors, and youth access. The UK government has also proposed restrictions on disposable vapes as part of a broader effort to reduce nicotine use among young people.

The cultural implications are more complex when it comes to practices such as shisha, also known as hookah or nargila, which are common in parts of the Middle East and among Arab communities globally. When tobacco is involved, these practices fall under existing tobacco regulations, meaning the same age-based restrictions would apply.

Cannabis is not included in this legislation and is governed under separate laws.

Britain is among the first countries to pursue a generational approach to tobacco control, although similar ideas have been discussed or proposed elsewhere. New Zealand previously passed a comparable policy but later reversed it before implementation, highlighting the political challenges of sustaining such measures over time.

The scientific evidence around smoking behavior suggests that restricting access can reduce uptake, particularly among young people, but it is not the only factor. Research indexed in PubMed and across public health studies has shown that early exposure, peer influence, stress, and social environment all play significant roles in whether individuals begin and continue smoking.

What Britain is attempting is not only a public health intervention but also a cultural shift. It is testing whether a habit that was once deeply embedded in daily life can be gradually removed through policy.

The change from my mother’s generation to today reflects a profound shift in how risk and health are understood. What was once widely accepted is now increasingly restricted and discouraged.

Children growing up under this framework may never encounter smoking as a normal part of adult life, at least in legal terms.

Whether the law achieves its intended outcome will depend not only on enforcement but on whether social norms continue to move in the same direction.

The ambition is clear. It is not simply to reduce smoking rates but to make smoking obsolete over time.

The post Is Britain creating a smoke-free generation by banning sales to those born after 2008? appeared first on Green Prophet.

Across Western countries and large parts of the Middle East, health systems are approaching a structural turning point.

Rising costs, chronic disease, demographic change, and environmental stress are exposing the limits of existing healthcare models.

What is becoming visible is not a crisis of medicine, but a crisis of system design.

Policymakers are increasingly recognizing that the future of health prevention and healthcare cannot be secured through medical expansion alone. Long-term stability will depend on how foundational systems—water, food, energy, and living environments—are designed and integrated.

In this article, I point out why health must be understood as the outcome of coherent system architectures. The question is no longer whether health systems will need to change, but whether they will be redesigned deliberately—or forced to change under pressure.

From System Loss to System Design – Why Health Begins Long Before Hospitals

In many countries, healthcare costs are rising faster than economic growth. At the same time, chronic disease is placing lasting pressure on public budgets. This situation is often described as a medical crisis. In reality, it is a structural one.

Health is not a medical sector.

It is the outcome of systems.

Modern health policy focuses primarily on hospitals, pharmaceuticals, and clinical care. These are necessary, but they intervene late—after imbalances have already emerged.

Health begins earlier: with water quality, food systems, living environments, and the ecological conditions of daily life. When these systems are unstable or poorly regulated, disease rates rise and healthcare systems enter a permanent repair mode.

This is not a failure of medicine.
It is a failure of system design.

Historically, this understanding of health was self-evident. Medical traditions across the Levant and the wider region viewed health as balance between human beings and their environment. Water, food, climate, and lifestyle were central medical factors. These systems were preventive and sustainable over time.

Today, it is becoming clear that intervention-based health systems—however effective in acute care—face economic limits. Even the countries that developed them struggle with rising costs and structural overload.

A different path is possible.

Where water systems are stable, nutrition improves. Where nutrition is stable, human physiology stabilizes. Where living environments support biological needs, long-term health costs decline. Health does not emerge as a service delivered, but as the result of good design.

This also changes how medicine itself is understood. Originally, the physician was a system thinker. In this sense, many professions shape health—from water and agricultural experts to urban planners and infrastructure operators.

This systemic relationship is illustrated in the accompanying graphic.

What Comes Next?

If health is a system outcome, reform cannot begin with isolated projects. It must take place at the level where systems are designed: states and ministries.

The next step lies in developing national health architectures that integrate water, food, living environments, and infrastructure as a coherent foundation. The goal is no longer intervention, but prevention—and long-term stability.

::Bonn Climate Project

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Heinz J. Sturm is a system architect and analyst working at the intersection of energy, water, health, and societal resilience. He is the initiator of the Bonn Climate Project, where he develops integrated system frameworks linking climate action with public health and long-term stability. Sturm is also the developer of Ars Medica Nova, a conceptual platform exploring new models of preventive health that draw on systems thinking, biology, and infrastructure design. His work focuses on translating complex system architectures into practical narratives for policymakers, researchers, and civil society.

The post Why Health Systems Are Reaching a Turning Point appeared first on Green Prophet.

When we traveled through Ethiopia last year (see our article on Wenchi Lake ecoreserve), this question came up again and again: Ethiopia is landlocked.

What surprised me wasn’t the frustration. It was how many Ethiopians openly welcomed closer ties with Somaliland as a practical way forward. This matters more now as Qatar, a state sponsor of terror, and China expand their influence across Ethiopia, investing in infrastructure, finance, and political relationships. With that growing presence you can see everywhere from Al Jazeera playing at every hotel to hundreds of unfinished Chinese infrastructure projects, the question of trade routes, ports, and national leverage has become more urgent, and more public.

In January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a Memorandum of Understanding that could reshape the Horn of Africa. Under the MoU, Ethiopia would gain access to Somaliland’s coastline for commercial shipping and possibly a naval facility, in return for Ethiopia agreeing to consider formal recognition of Somaliland’s independence. It’s not finalized, and it’s not without controversy, but it’s real. Yemen’s Houthis have been destabilizing the region since the 90s. They fire on passing oil tankers and they celebrate when Somali pirates capture ships passing through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal, a manmade shipping lane that cuts through Egypt.

Related: Somali pirates like to steal oil tankers.

Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in the early 1990s. Since then, nearly all imports and exports have flowed through Djibouti, creating vulnerability and cost. Over the past decade, Ethiopia has quietly increased its use of Berbera Port, the commercial capital of Somaliland, which has expanded and modernized enough to handle serious trade volumes. Ethiopia has also inflamed tensions with Egypt since building the GERD, a hydro-electric power plant at the source of the Nile river.

Somaliland, for its part, has operated as a de facto independent state since 1991. It has its own government, elections, currency, and security forces. It’s often described as one of the more stable and democratic political systems in the region, despite never being formally recognized internationally.

The MoU builds on years of trade and security cooperation. Ethiopia already relies on Somaliland’s ports. Formalizing that relationship makes economic sense, especially as regional competition intensifies and Red Sea access becomes more strategic for global shipping, energy, and exports. Having more Ethiopian presence in Somaliland, and now Israel, will help fight terror forces such as Al Shabaab, a Sunni Islamist religious extremist group based in Somalia.

Somalia, itself a lawless nation on the verge of becoming a terror state, has strongly opposed the deal, calling it a violation of its territorial integrity. Tensions flared quickly after the MoU was announced, and Ethiopia has since been careful to say that recognition is not immediate and that diplomacy is ongoing. Ethiopia, a predominantly Christian country, has to walk a fine line in order to keep the balance against insurgencies out of its

That caution reflects how complicated this is. Ethiopia wants access to the Red Sea. Somaliland wants recognition. Somalia wants to preserve its territorial claims. And outside actors, including Gulf states and China, are watching closely, each with their own interests.

What stood out during our visit was how openly Ethiopians discussed these tradeoffs. There was no sense of romantic nationalism, just a clear-eyed understanding that ports matter, trade matters, and sovereignty today is tied as much to supply chains as to borders drawn decades ago.

Whether the MoU leads to formal recognition remains uncertain. Regional politics move slowly, and sometimes sideways. But the direction is clear. Ethiopia is looking for options, and Somaliland is no longer viewed simply as a political question, but as a logistical one.

In a world shaped by climate stress, shipping disruptions, and global power competition, access to the sea is not a luxury. It’s infrastructure. And for many Ethiopians we met, working with Somaliland feels less like a provocation, and more like common sense.

Why Israel recognized Somaliland before Ethiopia

From conversations we had on the ground last year in Addis, what came through wasn’t uncertainty so much as a careful weighing of risks. Many Ethiopians we spoke with were openly supportive of deeper ties with Somaliland, yet they were equally clear-eyed about why formal recognition hasn’t happened. Ethiopia’s long and sensitive border with Somalia looms large, and recognizing Somaliland would be read in Mogadishu as a direct challenge to Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Every time we left the city our driver needed to check security along the roads as violent insurgencies are common in Ethiopia.

After decades spent trying to prevent further instability along that frontier—while coordinating on security and counter-militancy—few in Addis Ababa see value in provoking a diplomatic rupture at an already fragile moment. But Israel, on the other hand, can do it. Ethiopians already wave the flag of Israel in admiration and see an ancient thread of connection between their two sovereign nations –– back from when their Queen Sheba went to Jerusalem to meet the Jewish King Solomon.

Ethiopians also pointed to a more internal calculation. Ethiopia is a multi-ethnic federation still navigating its own political strains, and formally recognizing a breakaway state elsewhere in Africa risks opening doors Addis Ababa would rather keep closed.

As host of the African Union in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia is also steeped in the long-standing norm of preserving colonial-era borders, however imperfect they may be. For now, the country secures most of what it needs without crossing that line: port access, security cooperation, and deepening trade.

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I have my own little slice of paradise in a forest in Canada. It would be unsettling to say the least if the developers started carving up and developing the Crown Land, protected by law, around my land.

But this is what’s happening now in Iran, an a world-protected forest.

The story starts in a village called Sark, located in the Ponel–Khalkhal area, where road construction has begun to connect a newly built villa complex, and part of the UNESCO-protected Hyrcanian forests has been destroyed according to local reports in Iran.

Environmentalists speak of trees being cut down and heavy machinery entering the area. They say this organized destruction threatens the future of the Hyrcanian forests.

“I am an Architect and Restorer and an Urban Regeneration Expert working in the field of sustainable development, and I have spent years advocating for the preservation of my country’s heritage,” says Green Prophet contributor Ronak Roshan. (She’s called out the Aga Khan and their ecological award out for greenwashing in Iran).

“Recently, we were informed by the local community that road construction is underway in the Hyrcanian Forests to enable the development of luxury villas. Our field observations and initial documentation show clear signs of land-use change, unauthorized construction, and the expansion of private holding companies into forested areas, agricultural lands, and the buffer zones of this fragile ecosystem,” she says.

“Such activities pose a serious threat to the Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) of the site, endangering its ecological integrity, landscape continuity, and long-term conservation,” says Roshan,

While in just the past few months new warnings have been issued about the intensifying destruction of the Hyrcanian forests, field reports from the village of Sark in the Ponel–Khalkhal corridor in Gilan show that large-scale road construction has begun in the heart of the region’s ancient forests.

According to environmental activists, this work is being carried out in order to create an access route for a villa complex known as “Behesht Complex” (Paradise Complex).

According to information from informed sources, in order to obtain permits to continue construction of the Behesht villa complex, a road is being built so that afterwards the responsible authorities can justify construction “within the road corridor” and issue permits for the expansion of the complex.

Following this request, the felling of thousand-year-old Hyrcanian trees and the destruction of pristine vegetation has begun. Only a few families live in Sark village, and for years they have used a wooden bridge for their comings and goings. But now, parts of the forest are under pressure from road construction and site preparation for building, including earth removal, mountain cutting and alteration of the topography.

At the same time, environmental activists have sent a formal letter to UNESCO, warning about the planned destruction of the Hyrcanian forests, a World Heritage site, and calling for urgent international action.

In their letter, environmental activists write that this destruction is not limited to Gilan. They say this trend has been continuously ongoing for several decades and, especially after events such as the “Gilan, Capital of Construction” conference, has accelerated under the influence of certain individuals.

The activists have asked UNESCO to order an immediate halt, send a fact-finding mission to the affected areas, and issue an official statement of condemnation.

In Shahrivar (August–September) of this year as well, road construction from Tarom County to Shaft County, along the Dayleh-Sar highlands, began with tree cutting and destruction of the natural terrain, without obtaining any legal permits from the relevant authorities. As a result, 8.5 kilometres of rangeland and forest land in Shaft were destroyed.

The Hyrcanian forests form a long belt of about 850 kilometres, stretching from the Gorgan plain to parts of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Nineteen percent of the total area of the Hyrcanian forests registered with UNESCO—about 58,000 hectares—belongs to Gilan.

Environmental activists in Iran often face significant personal risk when speaking out about illegal land grabs, deforestation, or the destruction of protected areas. In recent years, several high-profile environmentalists have been detained, interrogated, or imprisoned on broad national-security charges, sometimes without transparent legal proceedings.

International human rights groups have repeatedly expressed concern that environmental advocacy in Iran can be treated as political dissent, leaving local activists vulnerable to surveillance, harassment, and pressure from security institutions. This has created a climate in which many citizens are afraid to report ecological damage, making the documented cases of forest destruction even more alarming given the courage required to bring them to light.

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Pope Leo XIV left Rome for a tour of Turkey and Lebanon and prayed Tuesday at the ruins of the 2020 Beirut port explosion, a site that has become a stark symbol of Lebanon’s dysfunction, impunity, and unresolved trauma. His visit marks the final day of his trip to the country.

Relatives of some of the 218 people killed in the blast stood silently as Leo arrived, holding photos of their loved ones. They gathered beside the skeletal remains of the last surviving grain silo and the charred piles of cars ignited by the explosion. Pope Leo stood in silent prayer amid the wreckage.

The August 4, 2020 blast, one of the largest non-nuclear explosions in the history of the world — occurred when hundreds of tons of improperly stored ammonium nitrate detonated in a port warehouse. The explosion tore through Beirut, caused billions of dollars in damage, and devastated entire neighborhoods. The explosion generated a seismic event measuring 3.3 in magnitude, as reported by the United States Geological Survey. Its effects were felt in Lebanon and neighbouring regions, including Syria, Israel, and Cyprus, over 240 km (150 mi) away.

Five years later, families of the victims are still demanding justice. No officials have been convicted, and the judicial investigation has faced years of obstruction. Locals say that the Hezbollah, a terror state, within a state is to blame. Of course it’s hard for people to say that publicly or they will be assassinated in Lebanon.

Later, the pope celebrated Mass along the Beirut waterfront, calling for Lebanon to be a “home of justice and fraternity” and a “prophetic sign of peace” in the region.

In his homily, Leo acknowledged the many layers of crisis that have scarred Lebanon, referencing the port blast, economic collapse, and “the violence and conflicts that have reawakened ancient fears.”

He said it is natural for people to feel “paralyzed by powerlessness in the face of evil and oppressed by so many difficult situations.”

But the pope urged the Lebanese not to surrender to despair, insisting that hope and justice are essential parts of the country’s future.

“Let us cast off the armor of our ethnic and political divisions, open our religious confessions to mutual encounter and reawaken in our hearts the dream of a united Lebanon,” he said. “A Lebanon where peace and justice reign, where all recognize each other as brothers and sisters.”

“Lebanon, stand up,” he added. “Be a home of justice and fraternity! Be a prophetic sign of peace for the whole of the Levant!”

Lebanon was never meant to be a Catholic country, but it was designed as a multi-confessional state with political power shared between Christians and Muslims. Under the 1943 National Pact, the president must be a Maronite Christian, giving Christians a guaranteed leadership role. Decades of civil war, demographic shifts seeing Christians flee, and regional conflicts have since eroded that balance, leaving the system strained and often paralyzed.

The post The Pope visits Lebanon and the site of the deadly Beirut blast appeared first on Green Prophet.

The Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) was created to be the great bridge between Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East — a place where shared challenges like climate change, water scarcity, youth unemployment, and clean energy could be tackled together.

Instead, the UfM has become a textbook case of consensus paralysis: a structure where 43 countries must agree before anything moves forward. In practice, this means that the long shadow of the Arab–Israeli conflict still shapes what can be said, who can be present, and which countries are allowed to lead. For an institution whose sole purpose is regional cooperation, the result is tragically predictable: the Mediterranean’s biggest tools for healing rifts are the ones most consistently left unused.

Below are recent, documented examples of how Arab political pressure — often reinforced by the EU’s own risk-aversion and the UN’s quiet compliance — creates sins of omission that undermine progress in women’s empowerment, climate cooperation, cleantech, and cultural diplomacy. I’ve even seen it in forest fire prevention.

I have reached out to the spokesperson and leadership at the UfM about their exclusionary practices, which I touch on below. Nasser Kamel, a general from Egypt who heads the organization didn’t reply. His spokesperson answered the phone but then refused to send feedback about the exclusionary policies we pointed out. Green Prophet then received this:

“The participation of representatives, experts, and citizens from any Member State, including Israel, in UfM activities is at the discretion of the respective national authorities and stakeholders. As an intergovernmental organisation, the UfM does not have the mandate to compel participation although it actively encourages and welcomes the engagement of all its members in its initiatives. There is no pattern of exclusion in either pre-activity communications or post-activity follow-ups related to water or any other sector. Israel is an active and engaged Member State that regularly participates in UfM Senior Officials Meetings as well as UfM Regional Platforms and Working Groups focused on water policy dialogue and related initiatives in the Mediterranean.”

This is the pattern in groups like this. Nice words, but they practice something else entirely. As someone who works in cleantech, and as a champion for women and the environment in the region I couldn’t help but notice exclusionary policies to Israelis. They may be “there” on paper but the reality is something else.

I reached out to Anna Dorangricchia, the gender expert at the the organization about inclusivity policies. She told Green Prophet: “We don’t have produced any  specifc report on diversity and inclusion so I’m afraid I cannot really help you, sorry.

On a recent call for participation they said they are looking for more than 50% women on the call, and that they will assure a geographical balance.

Case Study 1 (2023–2024): Women & Climate Leadership Without Israelis
UfM officials regularly state that “women, youth, and climate” are the safest and most promising spaces for Euro-Mediterranean cooperation. Yet the institution’s own events tell a different story. Across the Women4Mediterranean, Women Innovators, Climate Adaptation, and Women Entrepreneurs conferences held in Barcelona, Cairo, and Brussels (2023–2024), not a single Israeli woman innovator or climate leader was featured on panels or in official delegations. They will publish data that will not include Israeli women.

This is despite Israel being:

• A global top-tier country for women in STEM
• A regional leader in climate adaptation, water reuse, and desert agriculture
• Home to Arab-Jewish women-led climate ventures that embody the cooperation the UfM claims to champion. The Arava Institute is a prime example.

Women’s innovation is the softest of soft diplomacy tools — the very space where the region should be building trust. Yet because a handful of Arab governments routinely reject anything that looks like normalization, the UfM quietly complies. This is the politics of omission, which is harder to expose than outright exclusion, but just as damaging.

The excuse: Muslim Arabs, a majority by far in the region, don’t feel comfortable around Israelis. Israeli Arabs are invited through a back door when they register as Palestinians. Read below to how it’s been perfected.

Case Study 2 (2022–2024): UN Bodies Reinforcing the Same Patterns

The UN’s regional arms — especially ESCWA, but also UNDP and FAO in the Gulf — hold major climate, cleantech, and development gatherings in Doha, Dubai, Cairo, and Riyadh. And the pattern repeats: Israeli experts are excluded, or invited only as “online observers.” Joint research groups are formed that include Arab states and European academics, but not Israeli institutions — even when the topic is water scarcity, desalination, agriculture, or desertification, where Israel is a global leader.

Behind closed doors, European officials will admit the reason: “We avoid confrontation. Arabs would walk out.” In other words, UN bodies — which preach inclusiveness — reinforce the same consensus paralysis as the UfM.
Again, the tools for healing rifts exist — and they are deliberately not used.

If you see the front page of ESCWA’s website they are calling the Hamas-Israel conflict, started by Hamas “a War on Gaza.”

Palestine is intentionally framed as a regional development priority, while Israel is framed as irrelevant — except as a geopolitical antagonist. Here is a UN-funded Med conference that paints Israel as a villain.

Case Study 3 (2020–2023): Cleantech, Climate Finance & Qatar’s Influence

Many UfM and EU-Mediterranean climate programs are now co-funded or co-branded with Gulf partners (Qatar Foundation, Masdar, ADQ, Saudi Green Initiative, etc.). These sponsors bring money — but also political red lines. The last meeting was in Doha, Qatar. Why are Mediterranean peace and climate leaders meeting in the Gulf?

High-visibility participation of Israelis, they will say, becomes “too sensitive.”

EU-backed research networks omit Israeli nodes even when the science requires them (e.g., micro-irrigation, solar thermal storage, grid-stabilizing technologies). This is not an accidental oversight. This is structural. Arab sovereign wealth funds are now key financiers in Mediterranean climate cooperation — and they leverage their position to enforce old regional politics inside ostensibly neutral EU frameworks.

Case Study 4 (2020): COVID-19 Recovery Programs Without Israeli MedTech
During the COVID-19 recovery period, the UfM launched major programs for digital health, medtech, and emergency response.  Yet none of its flagship recovery initiatives visibly integrated Israeli: Remote diagnostics, AI health systems, First-responder innovations, Arab–Jewish hospital cooperation models. Israel’s medtech sector could have been a perfect bridge — especially for women in health, startups in the periphery, or cross-Mediterranean humanitarian partnerships.

Instead, the UfM defaulted to the lowest common denominator: keep it technical, keep it vague, avoid political discomfort so the Arab world and natural gas and oil money stays happy.

Why This Matters Now

The tragedy of consensus paralysis is not simply that Israelis are marginalized. It is that the region loses access to the best available tools for peacebuilding:

• Women’s entrepreneurship
• Climate adaptation
• Water reuse
• Digital health
• Desert agriculture
• Cleantech innovation
• Youth exchanges

These should be the spaces where cooperation flourishes beyond politics. Instead, Arab normalization resistance — unchallenged by EU and UN bodies — ensures they remain politically sanitized and technically shallow.
The Mediterranean cannot solve climate change, migration pressures, or food insecurity if it continues to sideline the very countries with the expertise to contribute. And the more the UfM, the EU, and UN bodies appease political vetoes, the more they reinforce the exact divisions they were created to heal.

The call mechanism for inclusion is broken

One way EU and UN organizations exclude Jewish Israelis, and I see this all the time in areas of cleantech and eco-events, is by limiting “eligibility” to Palestinians, not Israelis, by defining participants through population categories, not citizenship. And this is what you will find.

Many calls for participation use criteria such as:

• Arab youth
• Women from the Arab region
• West Asian populations
• Participants from conflict-affected Arab communities
• Stakeholders from the State of Palestine

Because Israeli Arabs (Muslim or Christian) share language, culture, and geographic identity with Palestinian populations, they technically qualify for these categories. But Israeli Jews — even if regionally relevant, even if experts in the exact domain — do not qualify.

Calling for Arabs from the region, it allows organizers to include “Arab citizens of Israel” without acknowledging Israel as a state; claim inclusivity (“we included Arab voices from the region”); avoid dealing with Israeli ministries, embassies, or universities; preserve the diplomatic fiction that “all Arabs” participate while Israel does not. This results in Israeli Muslim and Christian professionals being welcomed only as Arabs, not as Israelis, effectively erasing their national identity in international fora.

The Path Forward

If institutions like the UfM want to be relevant in 2030 and beyond, and stay funded, they must protect technical cooperation from political vetoes. Guarantee representation for all regional innovators, including Israelis. Elevate women, climate, and youth programs as de-politicized peace platforms. Stop outsourcing Mediterranean cooperation to Gulf funders with political conditions. Publicly acknowledge sins of omission instead of hiding behind “neutrality”

Because the greatest danger in Euro-Mediterranean cooperation today is not conflict — it is the cowardice of institutions unwilling to use the tools that build peace.

The post How the Mediterranean’s most hopeful UN green organizations fail at peace-building appeared first on Green Prophet.

We know about Chernobyl and Las Alamos: the lasting effects of radiation on the Saharan Tuareg in the desert

Between 1960 and 1966, seventeen nuclear detonations took place deep in Algeria’s Sahara Desert — first at Reggane and later in the Hoggar Mountains near In Ekker. Conducted under French supervision during the Cold War, these experiments were designed to develop a nuclear weapons capability. Their physical and political fallout is still with us.

The nuclear testing was not done in a vacuum and like at Las Alamos in New Mexico it affected the people nearby. In Algeria that was the Tuareg people. Others affected with the Berber-speaking nomadic group of the Sahara, whose territory spans large parts of southern Algeria; The Kel Ahaggar community which is a specific Tuareg confederation located in the Hoggar Mountains region off Algeria, and other local residents.

While less clearly documented in accessible sources, sites of the nuclear testing such as In Ekker and the surrounding desert zone indicate that French military, local manual workers, nomadic pastoralists, and their settlement communities were exposed.

A peer-reviewed study in Applied Radiation and Isotopes found measurable levels of plutonium and other radionuclides remaining at former test sites decades after the final detonation. A broader review of global weapons tests published in Environmental Sciences Europe confirms that radioactive contamination from Sahara tests persists in soils and fractured rock and can be re-mobilized by desert winds. If England gets locusts blown to its shores from Egypt, imagine how far radioactive dust can travel.

Algeria declared independence from France in 1962, but the Évian Accords that ended open conflict also granted France continued access to certain military and research sites in the Sahara for up to five years after independence. These terms were negotiated between the French state and Algeria’s provisional government (the FLN leadership at the time). This means the testing program after 1962 did not happen in a legal vacuum: it was authorized in writing by the Algerian Government, and it served strategic interests on both sides at the time. There was a power imbalance, giving the Algerians not much choice.

For France, the Sahara was a proving ground for weapons credibility as the Americans did in the deserts around the Los Alamos nuclear testing facility, established in 1943 as Project Y, a top-secret site for designing nuclear weapons under the Manhattan Project during World War II.  For Algeria’s new leadership, the agreement helped secure full political recognition, state continuity, and material support at a fragile moment of transition to their autonomy. The cost of that compromise was largely borne by remote southern communities, as is the case in many of today’s superpowers.

Some of the underground nuclear shots tested at In Ekker were supposed to be fully contained. In reality, not all of them were. One detonation, known as the Béryl Incident (1 May 1962), vented radioactive dust and hot debris into the open air when the test tunnel’s seal failed. French military personnel, engineers, and nearby residents were all exposed –– some highly contaminated. Decades later, radiation dose reconstructions and site surveys continue to document contamination in the blast zones and surrounding scrap fields.

People living downwind describe long-term health problems, loss of grazing land, restrictions around traditional water sources, and the normalization of sickness with no official acknowledgment. The same which happend in Love Canada, USA, a site I visited in the 90s. This happens in Turkey today where the government fails to recognize cancer clusters in industrialized zones outside the city. One scientist we interviewed was threatened to be put in jail if he continued his scientific research on the issue.

French veterans of the Sahara tests have in some cases received recognition and partial compensation under later French law, while Algerian civilians have struggled to access comparable review or support. Algeria, like most countries in North Africa and the Middle East are about 30 to 40 years behind on environmental issues and research. It’s not so easy to point a finger and find a villain. Algeria, 65 years on does not have a great environmental record.

Algeria faces a complex mix of environmental and pollution challenges that extend from its Mediterranean coast to its Saharan interior. The most pressing issue is air pollution in major cities such as Algiers, Oran, and Constantine, where outdated vehicles, industrial emissions, and open waste burning raise fine particulate (PM2.5) levels to more than three times the World Health Organization’s recommended limit.

Water contamination is another critical concern. Much of Algeria’s wastewater is released untreated into rivers and the sea, carrying agricultural runoff, heavy metals, and plastic debris. Coastal zones near industrial centers like Skikda and Annaba are among the most polluted in the southern Mediterranean, threatening fisheries and tourism. Groundwater in rural regions also suffers from nitrate and pesticide infiltration.

Inland, desertification and soil erosion are advancing due to overgrazing, deforestation, and a warming climate. The country loses thousands of hectares of forest annually to drought and wildfires, despite new reforestation and water-retention projects.

Finally, oil and gas extraction along with urban waste management gaps add to Algeria’s pollution load. While national plans now emphasize renewable energy, afforestation, and stricter environmental monitoring, progress remains uneven. The challenge is balancing economic growth with sustainable resource stewardship. With an estimated 2,400 billion cubic metres of proven conventional natural gas reserves, Algeria ranks 10th globally and first in Africa. It also has the third largest untapped unconventional gas resources in the world.

Algeria has 12.2 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, ranking it 15th in the world and third in Africa. Currently, all oil and gas reserves are located on land and it is a major contributor to oil pollution in the Mediterranean Sea. Algeria is exploring new possibilities for oil and gas extraction, including offshore and shale gas opportunities.

The legacy of Sahara nuclear testing is often framed as a simple one-direction story, but the reality is more entangled. France designed, managed, and detonated the devices. Oversight after 1966 has involved both governments and, at times, international agencies. What has not happened at scale is transparent, long-term medical screening for affected communities and a full clean-up of contaminated waste that was left in place.

But putting it in scale, Algeria has a lot of environmental accounting to do. Just blaming France or “colonial” powers is short-sighted and distracting, absolving locals from trying to better on its own locally-made problems due to extremely high levels of corruption. At Green Prophet we zoom out and try to show you the wider story to issues that affect every human on this planet.

Want to learn more about the environment in Algeria? Start here:

This stunning ancient citadel in the Sahara Desert has a mysterious past

How Islamic-era agriculture points way to sustainable farming methods

Algerian Judoka expected to defeat an Israeli player before match

Algeria’s Controversial Love Lock Bridge Rebrands Suicide

Aerodynamic ARPT Headquarters Diverts Algiers’ Hot Desert Winds Naturally

Oil fracking protestors in Algeria rise up against their regime, Total and Shell

Algeria to Invest $20 billion USD in renewable energy

Top wildlife destinations in North Africa (includes Algeria)

Climate Change Contributing to Mali-Algeria Conflict

Algeria Archives – all articles on Algeria

The post The little known nuclear testing sites used by France in Algeria’s Sahara Desert appeared first on Green Prophet.

In 2012, Green Prophet sounded the alarm about depleted Gulf fish stocks and weak enforcement in Dubai. Revisit Tafline Laylin’s original piece here: Dubai Finally Gets Serious About Overfishing.

Thirteen years on, what’s changed—and what hasn’t? Regulatory frameworks are clearer. The UAE now requires licences for commercial and recreational fishing and sets rules on species, sizes, seasons, and gear. See the official portal: Regulating fishing practices (UAE).

Marine protection and monitoring have expanded. Authorities report more scientifically informed monitoring and new research capacity,including offshore survey capability and support vessels for fisheries and habitat assessment (overview at Life Below Water – UAE.)

The post Dubai overfishing: 13 years after Tafline’s warning appeared first on Green Prophet.

Egypt is modernizing its massive irrigation network—lining canals, expanding drip and sprinkler systems across approximately 3.7 million feddans, about 6,000 square miles, and deploying smart irrigation technologies—not just for efficiency, but as preparation for potential reductions in Nile water. Sources highlight that Egypt’s modernization targets could slash irrigation waste by up to one-third, potentially saving billions of cubic meters annually. 

The urgency is fueled by growing water scarcity—Egypt now faces an annual deficit of around 7 billion m³, exacerbated by population growth, climate change, and upstream projects like the GERD a new dam built by Ethiopis. While Egypt remains deeply reliant on the Nile, fears of reduced flows—especially during drought years or due to unilateral actions—have reinforced the strategic urgency for domestic resilience.

Egypt’s irrigation overhaul isn’t just about modern farming—it’s a proactive strategy to stretch its diminishing Nile share and future-proof agriculture in a volatile water landscape. Its expansive irrigation modernization initiative aims to enhance agricultural efficiency and protect its water supply. The plan includes upgrading field-level irrigation systems, lining canals, and introducing smart water management—all aimed at transforming inefficient flood irrigation and securing the Nile’s vital flows.

The Ministry of Planning in Egypt has budgeted nearly EGP 144.8 billion (~$3 billion USD) for agriculture and irrigation in FY 2025–26, including public and private funding, targeting improved irrigation systems and increased yield per feddan. And it is also targeting modernization across 3.7 million feddans, switching from traditional flood methods to semi-modern techniques like drip and pivot irrigation over the next few years. These changes could reduce water usage by up to 30% while boosting productivity by 30–40%.

Egypt’s top farm exports to global markets are led by citrus fruits (about 4.2 billion lb shipped in mid-2025, ≈1.9 MMT) with orchards covering roughly 152,000 ha (~375,600 acres); followed by potatoes (~2.9 billion lb exports; national harvested area ~213,000 ha or ~526,300 acres); fresh onions (~511 million lb exports; ~64,000 ha or ~158,100 acres under cultivation); table grapes (~351 million lb exports; harvested area ~73,000 ha or ~180,400 acres); and sweet potatoes (~273 million lb exports; 2023 area ~12,427 ha or ~30,700 acres).

Collectively, these crops drive roughly $4 billion in annual farm export earnings, underscoring Egypt’s pivotal role in regional food supply chains.

Cotton is still very much a thing in Egypt, though its role has shifted. Egypt is famous for its long-staple and extra-long-staple cotton, often branded internationally as Egyptian Cotton. It has a reputation for high-quality, fine fibers used in luxury textiles and bedding. Production peaked in the mid-20th century, but land competition with food crops, water constraints, and global price fluctuations have reduced its cultivated area.

Yes—cotton remains a notable Egyptian crop. In calendar year 2024, Egypt’s raw cotton exports were valued at about $475 million, driven by the country’s famed long- and extra-long-staple fibers (“Egyptian cotton”). For context, USDA projects MY 2024/25 raw cotton exports at roughly 184,000 bales (480-lb bales).

If implemented well, the overhaul could save billions of cubic meters annually, relieve pressure on groundwater, and strengthen Egypt’s position in Nile water discussions. However, key challenges include financing costs, farmer acceptance, and ensuring “saved” water doesn’t simply expand water-intensive agriculture. Companies like Netafim, the regional and global pioneer of drip irrigation systems, could help Egypt achieve its goals.

Egypt’s irrigation system has roots in millennia-old techniques, from Aswan Dam regulation to historic canal networks. The current program builds on this heritage, blending tradition with pressure-based systems and digital monitoring. Watch developments on the GERD dam opening this year from Ethiopia as water volume from the Nile that goes to Egypt may drop dramatically.

Further reading on Green Prophet:

• • Saudi Arabia’s $650M bet on desalination
  • The Al Baydha Project: How regenerative agriculture revived green life in a Saudi Arabian desert

The post Egypt overhauls its irrigation system in anticipation of losing the Nile appeared first on Green Prophet.